Shortwave troughs rotating around an immense cutoff low over the eastern Great Lakes, created an environment conducive for thunderstorms to develop. A couple of these storms did briefly pulse to severe levels.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
Shortwave troughs rotating around an immense cutoff low over the eastern Great Lakes, created an environment conducive for thunderstorms to develop. A couple of these storms did briefly pulse to severe levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 28, 2:16 PM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 316 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 .SYNOPSIS... THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS COVERED THE CAROLINAS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORD LOWS THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. DEWPOINTS RUNNING UP IN THE LOWER 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST DOWN TO THE MID 60S INLAND. SOME STORMS HAVE POPPED JUST NORTH OF CWA AND EXPECT OTHERS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL KEEP COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED. DRIER AIR APPARENT ON VIS SATELLITE THROUGH SC COUNTIES IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FIRST SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND MAIN H5 TROUGH INTO LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. WEAK TROUGH OR FRONT WILL APPROACH AREA BUT OVERALL WILL MAINTAIN DEEP SW FLOW ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. AS HEATING GETS CUT OFF AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING..ANY SHWRS/TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE. LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM/GFS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL RUN UP JUST SKIRTING THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER CHC FOR SOME SHWR ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...BUT MOST OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OVER COASTAL WATERS OFF SHORE AS H5 TROUGH FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP WITH CURRENT THINKING WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR COASTAL ZONES DIMINISHING AND ENDING BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO THE MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. WEAK JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT KEEPING WINDS UP SLIGHTLY. PLEASE SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE BIG WEATHER STORY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE THE HUGE CUTOFF LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT UNDER THIS SECOND VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLAM THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS JUST BEFORE SUNSET FRIDAY BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE ANY OF THAT THAT OCCURS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. AT 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THE BACK EDGE OF ANY SHOWERS/ T-STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EXITING THE COAST AND MOVING OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE ALMOST AS WARM AS TODAY, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH A STRONG ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TO BRING THESE WARM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE BEACHES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A GOOD SURFACE INVERSION SETS UP. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 60-66, WARMEST AT THE COAST. ON FRIDAY THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALMOST AS WARM AS THURSDAY ALTHOUGH EVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE WEAKLY COLD-ADVECTIVE DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE ANY INFLUX OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS SUCH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT COMING THROUGH CONCURRENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WE FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-95. SURFACE WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 50-55, WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY WARMEST READINGS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO START OCTOBER WITH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF THE END OF OCTOBER. UNSEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING. FLORENCE RECORD LOW OF 41 APPEARS TO BE SAFE...BUT THE WILMINGTON RECORD LOW OF 44 COULD BE A CLOSE CALL...AS THIS FORECAST ONLY MISSES IT BY A FEW DEGREES. BASED ON 850MB TEMPS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW THE EXTENDED GFS MOS FOR HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT LEAVES US JUST EITHER SIDE OF 70. MODERATING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH GIVES WAY TO RIDGING FROM THE SW...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE HEADING INTO OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TIMING OF ACTIVITY...THUS HAVE OPTED TO ONLY INTRODUCE VCSH AND CB FOR NOW. STRONGER STORMS COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR/IFR. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 6-8KTS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LLVL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY MORNING. CURRENT TIME-SECTION HEIGHT AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MODERATE LLVL JET OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR. INTO THURSDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH W-SW WINDS AOB 10KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY WITH AN WITH A COLD FROPA. GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AS SEA BREEZE CUTS OFF WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S-SE TO SW OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW BUT WILL NOT REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...BUT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND WEAK JET DEVELOPS PRODUCING WINDS UP AROUND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS WITH AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS FROM 1 TO 3 FT UP TO 2 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT THESE SHOULD FADE BY LATE MORNING. A MORE WESTERLY WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG INCOMING COLD FRONT, EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO NEAR 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR POURS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MODERATE NORTH WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE COLD AIR SURGE PEAKS ON SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE A SOLID 20 KT AT THAT POINT...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR 15-20 KT WINDS WELL INTO SUNDAY...THEN DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY...AND GENERALLY WENT WITH 2-4 FT...KEEPING THE 5 FOOTERS OUT AROUND FRYING PAN BUOY. NAH AND WNA GUIDANCE BRINGING A SE SWELL IN ON SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL TAKE THAT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT GIVEN THAT BOTH ARE A BIT OVERDONE ON THE SE SWELL THIS AFTERNOON. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...HOLDING OFF ON COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR FOR NOW BUT HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE. MAX LEVELS TODAY AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON TIDE GAGE REACHED JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE READING 5.55 FT AND MINOR FLOODING WAS REPORTED. LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OUT WITH FORECAST JUST APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE DURING HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY. THE ACTUAL FORECAST FOR THE WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT GAGE HAS RIVER LEVELS AT 5.44 FT AT HIGH TIDE AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...SGL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 323 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 AMZ250-252-254-256-291930- SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM- 323 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-291930- COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY- COASTAL GEORGETOWN- 323 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-291930- ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER- INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION- WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN- 323 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
314 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011
NCZ105-282015-
INLAND PENDER-
314 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PENDER COUNTY...
AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTH OF MOORETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASHTON...MAPLE HILL...MOORETOWN...
WHITE STOCKING AND HOLLY SHELTER GAME LAND.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.
&&
LAT...LON 3439 7783 3450 7791 3473 7776 3473 7768
3470 7767 3451 7758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 226DEG 14KT 3448 7779
RASSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 346 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 NCZ099-105-107-109-282045- COLUMBUS-INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND NEW HANOVER-INLAND PENDER- 346 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY... AT 345 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANDY CREEK...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF LELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BURGAW...LELAND...ASHTON... BATARORA...CASTLE HAYNE...DELCO...LONG CREEK...MONTAGUE... MOORETOWN...PHOENIX...RIEGELWOOD AND ROCKY POINT. HAZARDS INCLUDE... PEA SIZE HAIL. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR SEVERAL MILES FROM THE RAIN. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS. && LAT...LON 3462 7791 3431 7778 3413 7830 3424 7836 TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 242DEG 17KT 3431 7816 RAS
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:28 UTC.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail to the size of quarters was reported near the intersection of Highway 53 and Burgaw Creek Loop Road.
Several trees and power lines were reportedly down on Lake Shore Drive. The time was estimated based on radar data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, September 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 348876, 348877.