Heavy Rain, Transylvania
- When
- November 28, 12:45 PM EST
- Where
- Transylvania County, 1.13 mi W of East Fork
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 35.130, -82.800
East Fork River Rd was partially flooded near the East Fork Baptist Church.
From 3 to 5 inches of rain fell over parts of the south and east facing slopes of the southern Appalachian Mountains during the day on the 28th and early morning of the 29th. This caused flash flooding and some main stem river flooding in the North Carolina Mountains.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
From 3 to 5 inches of rain fell over parts of the south and east facing slopes of the southern Appalachian Mountains during the day on the 28th and early morning of the 29th. This caused flash flooding and some main stem river flooding in the North Carolina Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 28, 11:00 AM EST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY....FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 11 AM EST... RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY PLUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
GUIDANCE INDICATE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FROM NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER NORTH TO CALDWELL COUNTY IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND INCREASED FLOOD THREAT. FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. WATCH ENDING TIME WILL BE 11Z TUE.
AT 930 AM EST... SURFACE LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF NC.
THIS PLACES THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STRONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE CONFLUENT PREFRONTAL
REGION UNDER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION ALSO
RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AXIS OF HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM
EAST TN SOUTHWARD THRU GA TO NORTHWEST FLORIDA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE AXIS IS ROUGHLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW TRAVELS FROM EAST TN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY.
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/RUC 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS DISPLAY ONLY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES DURING THE REST OF TODAY... SO ALL MODELS CONTINUE
STRONG SOUTHEAST... UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. EMPHASIS IS STILL
ON EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY VICINITY BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FROM N GA ALONG NC/SC
BORDER. THE 06Z NAM FIRE WEATHER HIGH RESOLUTION RUN PLACES HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IN THAT PART OF THE CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF APPROACHING LOW AND ASSOC COLD FRONT AND SHWRS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHO LATEST QPF FCST
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER...AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE N OVER THE
REGION...QPF OVER THE W MTNS REMAINS QUITE HIGH AND THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS WELL PLACED FOR NOW. AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TODAY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THE LAKE WIND ADVSRY OVER THE MTNS
ALSO LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT BE EXPANDED ATTM. WIND SHEAR INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY BUT CAPE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW NAM CAPE IS HIGHER THAN THE CAPPED
GFS SO USED A BLEND AND KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS THIS
AFTN-EVE. THE NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES AS WELL. STRONG S
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVG TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN AT HIGHER MTN PEAKS AND
RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER TN
TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THE GFS
HAS THE LOW REACHING THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE THE
NAM LAGS BEHIND IN EASTERN KY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THIS FEATURE IS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH TRAILING THE LOW CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS
EXPECTED TO START OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS RAIN AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...AS SUPPORTED BY BLENDED MODEL THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS...AND
A TOP DOWN APPROACH USING BLENDED MODEL WET BULBS. AN EXAMINATION
OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT IF SURFACE WET BULBS WERE JUST A
BIT COOLER TUESDAY MORNING...AS THEY WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR
AREA...SNOW LEVELS COULD BE LOWER.
SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FLOORS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
JUST AS POPS AND QPF DECREASE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...
LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS TO AT MOST TWO INCHES ON THE HIGHEST RIDGE
TOPS. A WARM NOSE ALOFT IS NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SLEET BECOMES POSSIBLE IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. EARLY
WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE TN BORDER...BUT MOISTURE
RAPIDLY DECREASES...AND THE EVENT ENDS QUIETLY AS DAYTIME WARMING
ALLOWS A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW WINTERTIME NORMALS ON TUESDAY UNDER
THE UPPER LOW...INCREASING TO JUST ABOVE MID WINTER VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE MID WINTER VALUES
BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING 12Z THU AS S/W RIDGE BEGINS WORKING INTO THE REGION.
THESE GENERAL SYNOPTICS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FCST...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXT PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A
LARGE THETA/E TROF TO ENCOMPASS THE SE REGION THU TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND VERY GOOD INSOLATION MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS PRODUCING AROUND NORMAL MAXES BY FRI. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
LOOSELY AGREED UPON BY THE OP MODELS WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH FRI...SO DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN SOME LOW END
-RASNSH ACROSS THE NRN MTN SPINE THROUGH 12Z SAT. A FAIRLY
STRONG...1032 MB...POLAR HIGH WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY BEHIND THE S/W PASSAGE SAT AND GENERATE SOME MEASURE OF A
LOWER AIR MASS MIX WHILE THE SFC FLOW VEERS E/LY TO S/LY THROUGH
SUN. MODERATE MLVL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE ATMOS DRY THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SCT/BKN CI/ACU MOVES IN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
SYSTEM WEST OF THE CWFA. SO...THINK CLOUD COVER AND AIR MASS MIX
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS A CAT OR SO BELOW NORMAL EVEN WITH
DEEP SW/LY FLOW SETTING UP SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CIG AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE W TODAY. EXPECT SCT SHWRS WITH VFR OCNL MVFR CIG...LOWERING TO
IFR LATE THIS AFTN IN MDT RAIN. CHC TSTMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
SE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT THIS
AFTN-EVE. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT CIG/VSBY WILL STAY IFR OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT BUT CONDITIONS LOWERING EARLIER.
OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA TUE AND SHOWERS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LINGER THRU
THE DAY. A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS PSBL AT KAVL TUE WITH PASSAGE OF
UPPER LOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WED ON.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-018.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
062>065-501>510.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>007.
&&
SYNOPSIS...LGL
NEAR TERM...LGL/RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...LGL/RBHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011 GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510- SCZ007>014-019-291130- FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND- LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL- GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK- SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC- CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ017-018-SCZ001>006-291130- HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE- 625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-291130- RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- 625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011 ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY. FLOOD WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-507-509-291130- AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- 625 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011 ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE WIND ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. 07
The Greer radar (KGSP), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:43 UTC.
9 flash flood, 1 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
East Fork River Rd was partially flooded near the East Fork Baptist Church.
Flooding developed initially in the eastern part of the county, along Cascade Lake Rd near Merrill Lane, as a result of a combination of heavy rain and back water effects from a large log jam on the French Broad River. The log jam was just downstream of the confluence of the French Broad and Little Rivers.
Flooding along the river, and across much of central and eastern Transylvania County, increased through the afternoon, including along Hannah Ford Rd about 4 miles southwest of Brevard. The French Broad River at Blantyre reached flood stage at|2:15 pm, and didn't go below flood stage until 5:15 pm on the 29th. The Little River at Penrose hit flood stage at 2:30 pm.
Several locations along River Road were flooded.
An automated river gauge on the French Broad River at Rosman reached the flood stage of 9 feet. Flooding was reported in several low lying places in town at about this time.
Flooding in the county worsened during the late afternoon and evening hours with C Green, Island Ford and Davidson River Roads, among others, flooded by 450 pm. Flooding occurred both along rivers and streams in the county.
An automated river gauge on Mud Creek in Hendersonville reported a stage of 7.52 Feet. Flood stage is 7.5 feet. At this level, several roads on the south side of Hendersonville are covered with water. til 1030 pm.
An automated river gauge on Bat Fork Creek in Hendersonville crested at the 7 foot flood stage. At this level Jackson Park on the east side of Hendersonville floods.
The Elk River flooded parts of Elk River Road in the northwest part of the county near Elk Park.
Greene Rd, near the intersection of highway 221, was flooded by the Linville River in|Crossnore.
Streams began to recede during that late evening hours after heavy rain ended. However, flooding continued along the French Broad River and Little River through the day on the 29th.
Flooding affected Johns River Rd and Corpening Bridge Rd in the northern part of the county. The flooding was associated with the Johns River hitting 12.5 feet at the Arneys Store gauge. The river went back below 12.5 feet at 5:45 am local time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 353946, 353950, 354562, 354461, 354462, 353940, 353941, 353942, 353944, 354563, 354564.