Flooding and Heavy Rain in Kentucky, November 28 to 29, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LOW PRESSURE OVER ALABAMA WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO EAST TENNESSEE
BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL TRENDS ARE A TAD
QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND PARENT UPPER
VORTEX...BUT DO NOT REALLY OFFER ANY DRASTIC CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
THOUGHTS ON THE SYSTEM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
SHIFT TO OUR NORTH AND WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
  MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PARTS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION...
  BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 SHOULD SEE THE MOST RAIN WITH UP
  TO 4 INCHES STORM TOTAL POSSIBLE. FAR EAST KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE
  DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL EAT INTO AMOUNTS.

* HEADLINES...GOOD PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
  LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 AND ALONG THE
  I-64 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS STAND TO SEE THE MOST RAIN OVER THE NEXT
  COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE SEEN THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST WEEK. WILL
  ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS BUT HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT
  THIS SHOULD BE A MINOR EVENT AS RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE
  EXCESSIVELY HEAVY AT ANY GIVEN TIME.

* RIVERS...RUNOFF WILL CAUSE STRONG RISES ON AREA RIVERS INTO THE
  MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THE QPF OFFERED BY BOTH
  HPC AND THE OHRFC OVER THE UPSTREAM PARTS OF THE KENTUCKY AND
  CUMBERLAND DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING. THUS...THE ONLY RIVER POINTS
  CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE ARE RAVENNA AND CLAY
  CITY WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF WILL FALL. FORECAST LEVELS ON THE
  CUMBERLAND FROM PINEVILLE DOWNSTREAM ARE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AND
  WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP THAT BASIN AND
  ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

* WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM AND PIVOT NORTHWARD OVER THE
  AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NAM SHOWS 50 KT PERPENDICULAR
  FLOW TO BLACK MOUNTAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH 60 KTS IN THE GFS. LOW
  CONFIDENCE BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT IS POSSIBLE DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF
  BLACK MOUNTAIN. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE PROTECTED BY STABLE
  BOUNDARY LAYER.

* CHANGE TO SNOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 50S UNTIL
  THE FRONT PASSES...AND THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK FROM
  SOUTH TO NORTH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAN SEE
  SOME WET SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UP HIGH
  ALONG THE VIRGINA BORDER...BUT THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
  NIGHT EVERYWHERE AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS ON THROUGH AND TO THE
  NORTHEAST. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD THOUGH SO DO NOT
  ANTICIPATE MORE THAN A DUSTING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AT THIS
  TIME.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE CUT OFF LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT SO MUCH PRECIPITATION TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
THE TRAILING 50H TROF LINGERS IN THE AREA. IN THE ECMWF IT IS FROM
W/VA TO ERN KY TO CENTRAL AR AND THEN SOUTH TO THE GULF ALONG THE
TX/LA BORDER...WHILE THE 12Z GFS PLACES THE AXIS OF THE TROF FROM
ERN NC TO SRN GA. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR ERN KY. THE GFS SFC TROF HAS ALREADY MADE THE
JUMP TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE BULK OF ANY PCPN
CONFINED TO W/VA AND POINTS NORTH AS THE SFC LOW IS WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE ECMWF DEPICTION WHICH LINGERS PCPN OVER MOST OF OHIO AND ERN
KY.

ALL MODELS QUICKLY PULL THE SFC LOW INTO ERN CANADA AND BUILD HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WED NIGHT WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING WHICH WOULD YIELD SNOW IF
THERE WAS ANY MOISTURE LEFT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT NOW TO FALL EARLY ON WED AS THE COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. WITH THE FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO FORM A TRAJECTORY ALONG THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI AND THEN
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN KY THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
UPSLOPE AND THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO WETBULB TO BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WOULD PLACE LIGHT SNOW ALONG OUR BORDER COUNTIES WITH
VA BUT THE RECENT RAIN AND WARM GROUND WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BELOW ABOUT 2500 FT.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 40S BUT WARMING TO NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSITS THE REGION ON FRI/FRI NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES... ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR FLURRIES. BY SAT AFTERNOON THE MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE IN THEIR
SOLUTION WITH THE GFS PLACING THE SFC HIGH ALONG THE GULF WITH A
STRONG LOW OVER HUDSON BAY EXTENDING INTO A TROF ALONG LAKE MI. THE
ECMWF HAS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST FROM VA TO NY WITH A
MUCH WEAKER LOW AND THE TRAILING TROF OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
DIFFERENCE DOES ALLOW THE ECMWF TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO
THE GFS PLACING ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF 50H CUT OFF LOWS OVER THE
DESERT SW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN AND
A SIMPLE TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN NEW MEXICO. HAVE CHOSEN TO
INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE SUNDAY FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS A BLEND OF
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

INITIAL CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA...FROM LIFR TO VFR.
IN GENERAL...THE BEST CONDITIONS WERE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA NEAR THE WV BORDER. TO THE WEST OF THERE...RAIN WAS
FALLING...HEAVILY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL SHOW AN OVERALL
DETERIORATING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ALL BUT THE EASTERN TIP
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WV BORDER BECOMING IFR OR WORSE AS RAIN
CONTINUES. DURING THE DAY MONDAY...STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH JUST SPORADIC LIGHTER RAIN
REMAINING ONCE THE STEADY RAIN DISSIPATES. ALONG WITH THE DECLINE IN
PRECIP SHOULD COME AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS BACK TO MOSTLY VFR.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-282330-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG
326 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES EXPECTED BY DAWN. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS LATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY NOON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. STRONG RISES ARE ALSO LIKELY ON RIVERS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...WILL BE
LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

KYZ086>088-104-106>120-282330-
KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-
BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...
PIKEVILLE
326 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY NOON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL
LIKELY CAUSE RISES ON AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER AT
TIMES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY...WILL BE
LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ABE