Hail in North Carolina, May 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS...BUT IT SHOULD STALL WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WASH OUT ON FRIDAY. MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST LAPS DATA DEPICTS MODERATE INSTABILITY ACRS NW NC AND WITH BE
MONITORING DEEP CONVECTIVE TRENDS THRU MID-EVENING...FOR PROBABLE
TSTM EXPANSION ACRS THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH
CONVERGENT LLVL FLOW AND FORCED BY ENCROACHING WELL DEFIED S/WV.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD DEPART TO THE E OVERNIGHT...WITH A
SHALLOW RIDGE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ALONG
INTERSTATE 40...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SHOWERS FALL THIS EVENING.

HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDDAY WED AS A DEEP
UPPER VORTEX SLIPS EWD THROUGH KS. DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR FOR WED AFTN...TRIGGERING WILL
BE HARDER TO COME BY. WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NRN SECTIONS LATE DAY. MAXES WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
THURSDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA AS A CLOSED H5 LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24HRS WRT TO THE
SPEED AND DIRECTION OF PROPAGATION OF THIS LOW AND CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FCST
AREA WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY GETTING PUSHED FARTHER NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN UPPER FLOW BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE APPARENT IN THE SFC PATTERN EITHER. THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER VERY WARM SWLY LOW LVL FLOW ON THURS WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF CWFA
SOMETIME EARLY FRI MORNING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION AMONGST THE MAJOR MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE CURRENT
TIMING IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/SREF SOLUTIONS. ON THURSDAY...WE
CAN EXPECT MORE SUMMER LIKE HIGH TEMPS WITH A STEADY RAMP UP IN POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND
THE SFC LOW/FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
ON FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTH. CHANCE POPS REMAIN THRU MOST OF FRI AND THEN TAPER OFF EARLY
SAT MORNING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND UPPER FORCING VANISHES. IN TERMS
OF SVR POTENTIAL...I STILL ANTICIPATE THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER THE NC MTS AND EXTREME NE GA LATE THURS THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD WANING BEYOND 18Z. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SOME DECENT
LOW LVL SHEAR COULD GENERATE SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM TUESDAY...MDL GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE. UPPER TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THRU SAT.
THIS LEAVES A MOIST BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING DIURNAL
CONVECTION. LOWS NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND SAT NITES WITH
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL SAT. THEN MDLS AGREE ON BUILDING A GIANT UPPER
ANTICYCLONE SUNDAY THRU TUE. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER IN ITS PLACEMENT.
THE GFS BUILDS PUTS THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND HOLDS IT NEARLY STEADY THRU THE PERIOD...WHILE THE
ECMWF PUTS IT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND SLIDES IT SLOWLY INTO THE WRN
MID ATLANTIC BY TUE. THE ECMWF ALSO BREAKS OFF A CHUNK OF THE
PREVIOUS TROF AND DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
DRIFTS IT WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATTER WOULD DEVELOP
AT THE SFC...THE GFS DROPS A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE. THEY BOTH HAVE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE
GFS SHOWS LOTS OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION BOTH MON AND TUE. THE ECMWF IS DRIER WITH THE ONLY
CONVECTION OVER THE NRN MTNS TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE DRIER TREND.
EVEN IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW...THINK IT WILL BE FAR
ENUF SOUTH FOR LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WX. EVEN WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS
TO OUR NORTH...THE ECMWF HAS THICKNESS VALUES CLOSE TO THE GFS.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH WARMER SOLUTION AND HAVE HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 90S BY MON AND TUE. LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ENUF AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY TO LIMIT SENSIBLE WX TO JUST SHALLOW VFR LVL CONVECTION
CLDS.

ELSEWHERE...BETTER TSTM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
KAVL-KHKY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...JUST PATCHY...MAINLY MTN VALLEY
MVFR FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WESTERN NC AFTERNOON TSTM
CHANCES LOOKS SMALL ENUF AT THIS POINT TO FORGO ANY INTRODUCTION
OF CB FOR KAVL-KHKY.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KAVL TO KHKY WED
EVENING...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THU INTO FRI. DRIER HIGH PRES
SHOULD RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CSH/HG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CSH/HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-056-057-501>506-252345-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
742 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF I-40. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-
507>510-SCZ001>014-019-252345-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
742 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

NCZ033-049-050-501>505-242345-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER
CALDWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YANCEY...NORTHERN
MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...SOUTHERN
AVERY AND WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  INGALLS...
  ASHFORD...
  JONAS RIDGE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3606 8165 3582 8164 3583 8221 3601 8222

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
720 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

NCZ035-501-502-250000-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
720 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF UPTON...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PATTERSON...
  KINGS CREEK...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3610 8151 3610 8148 3608 8142 3600 8132
      3603 8127 3604 8121 3603 8115 3594 8114
      3595 8171 3613 8173 3613 8155

ARK