Winter Storm and Winter Weather in New York, February 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS WILL
BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
NORTHEAST. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
MONDAY...WITH WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 211 AM EST FRIDAY...996MB SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL KY AT 07Z
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS ON TRACK TO BRING SWATH OF STRONG
850-700MB WAA SNOWS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE MEAN IN TERMS OF THE SFC LOW
TRACK...TAKING IT ACROSS THE NYC AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY...AND THEN
TO CAPE COD BY 21Z. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH MORE
SWD TRACK NOTED IN OBSERVED DATA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S
PROGS...SO FEEL THE GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SOUTHWARD
TREND. THIS MEANS A COLDER VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE ACROSS
ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND BASED ON NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MIXED PCPN FROM THE FORECAST.
LIKEWISE...QPF IS NOW SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
USING 13:1 SNOW RATIOS...GETTING SNOW AMTS 2-3" AT KMSS AND 4-6"
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN VERMONT. THINKING 6-7" OR SO AT KBTV
AND THEN RAPID INCREASE IN SNOWFALL AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT WITH 8-12" INCHES EXPECTED. WILL SEE SOME
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS
AFTN /1-2" PER HOUR/ GIVEN STRENGTH OF UVV AND EXCELLENT DEEP
DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY LOW VSBY
IN FALLING SNOW AND DEVELOPING BLOWING SNOW /BY LATE AFTN/. BEST
FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 22Z AND WILL BE
LEFT WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOWS
OR SNOW SHOWERS THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WITH N WINDS 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF BLOWING
SNOW. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH VSBY
LOCALLY NEAR ZERO THRU THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WON/T VARY MUCH THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHS
GENERALLY 28-32F WITH TEMPS FALLING THIS EVENING AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE.

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS THE SAME IN TERMS OF AREA AND TIMING
THRU 05Z THIS EVENING. WILL NOTE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR NEAR THE INTL BORDER. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ALSO REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ON THE NWRN
FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM AND BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 211 AM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY...BUT STILL FAVOR THE NAM-MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT GENERALLY NW 10-15 MPH.

A STRONG ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THRU
THE WEEKEND. WE/LL HAVE A SFC ANTICYCLONE TRANSLATE QUICKLY THRU
THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...BUT SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS MOST LOCATIONS WITH COLD
850MB TEMPS OF -18 TO -20C.

SATURDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE SOME STRATIFORM LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE /1-3" RANGE/. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SFC TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT REDUCED CHANCES FOR SNOW BY
SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE REBOUND WITH HIGHS 28-32F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STREAM
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW...WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY TRAILING...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND START OUT
AS SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE CHANGING TO STRATIFORM RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS AMPLE QPF AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ENCOURAGE SOME ICE MOVEMENT ON RIVERS AND ICE
JAMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AS 850 MB
JET OF ABOUT 70 KTS CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY NIGHT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE THE RAIN BACK OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THEN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL AND QUICK...AFTER A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
FROM VFR TO MVFR...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FROM 12Z-14Z FRIDAY. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO LIFR/VLIFR IN HEAVY SNOW BY 16Z FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS
OF AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z-18Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY AND PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW TAPERS OFF FRIDAY
EVENING WITH CIGS/VIS IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. SAT...VFR. SAT
NIGHT- SUNDAY...FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL REDUCE CIGS/VIS
TO IFR. SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MONDAY...APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM
WEST WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA, MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS. MAINLY
VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ028>031-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ026-027-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-260900-
EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
351 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY CREATE FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. STRONG WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ026-027-087-260900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
351 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY CREATE FLOODING ISSUES
ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. STRONG WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.