Very strong winds fueled the Milagro Fire, especially on the 8th and 9th. Very dry antecedent conditions allowed this fire to quickly spread through western Guadalupe County.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Very strong winds fueled the Milagro Fire, especially on the 8th and 9th. Very dry antecedent conditions allowed this fire to quickly spread through western Guadalupe County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 2:02 AM MST, 10 hours 58 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 302 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2011 .DISCUSSION... A RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A VERY DRY AIR SURFACE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFIED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS AT MOST LOCALES EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. LIGHT TO BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES AND NEARBY PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND DRY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY GENERATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIND ADVISORIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND MACHINE CRANKING UP AGAIN. IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE CHUSKAS OR SAN JUANS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME AT MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL STRETCH...ELONGATE AND BEGINS TO FILL AS THE MAIN ENERGY SEPARATES AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE THE WEAKER TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARD NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS A MOISTURE INFLUX INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. BENNETT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DRY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL PATTERN RESIDES OVER NEW MEXICO. ONLY SOME MODERATE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL WEATHER BEFORE A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS RETURNS TO NEW MEXICO. THE BASIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES...THE FEATURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CREATE ANOTHER EFFICIENTLY MIXED ATMOSPHERE. YESTERDAY/S MIXING HEIGHTS SOARED TO 20 KFT MSL...AND THIS SCENARIO SHOULD REPEAT ITSELF WITH EASE TODAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS THROUGH THIS THICK BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...AND ANY AFTERNOON BREEZES SHOULD BE FAIRLY TAME WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20-25 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER...AND THE STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL GIVE ALL AREAS A HAINES INDEX OF 6 WITH SEVERAL AREAS SHOWING SUPER HAINES QUALITY. GOING INTO TONIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GIVE MUCH AID TO RH RECOVERY...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 SEEING POOR RECOVERIES UP TO ONLY 15-20 PERCENT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INLAND TO WASHINGTON/OREGON WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT PICKING UP OVER NEW MEXICO. A BETTER DEFINED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE GOOD MIXING THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG THAT WINDS WILL MEET CRITERIA IN THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...BUT THEY WILL BE CLOSE. WINDS WILL ALSO CREEP ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP WATCH GOING. CENTRAL VALLEYS AND MORE SHELTERED AREAS WILL NOT HAVE AS STRONG OF WINDS. THE SETUP BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CHURNS ITS WAY DEEPER INTO THE WESTERN STATES...FURTHER INTENSIFYING THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT AND DEEPENING THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW. SUSTAINED 20FT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LOOK TO SPREAD OVER A LARGE FOOTPRINT OF THE STATE WITH SEVERAL SITES LIKELY SEEING GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH...AND CERTAINLY THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL BE THERE WITH CONTINUED HIGH HAINES INDICES. WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY. UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECASTED TO OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN TROUGH...PEGGED TO HIT WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FORCE THE STRONGEST WINDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AND CRITICAL CONCERNS WILL BE STRONGEST. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD WORK INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A RIDGE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO COULD OPEN UP THE DOOR TO SOME MOISTURE INTRUSIONS IN THE EAST FROM BACK DOOR FRONTS AND A RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE. 52 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 84 42 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 76 31 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 79 34 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 79 38 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 75 35 76 37 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 81 39 81 40 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 80 37 78 37 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 85 45 85 45 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 71 31 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 47 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 77 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 36 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 65 39 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 78 36 76 36 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 74 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 87 40 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 81 43 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 44 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 51 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 87 53 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 51 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 50 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 91 48 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 89 49 86 44 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 92 54 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 85 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 83 39 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 46 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 85 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 79 52 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 82 47 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 86 43 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 86 47 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 82 44 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 89 48 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 86 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 93 54 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 92 54 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 95 51 95 51 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 93 52 94 51 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 94 50 95 50 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 95 53 94 53 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 98 52 98 55 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 90 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 85 52 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103>105-107>109. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109. && 01/52
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 544 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2011 NMZ501>540-081200- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 544 AM MDT SAT MAY 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. ALSO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ON MONDAY WITH SOME LOCALES OBSERVING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER REMAINING AREAS. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY WHERE ONCE AGAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 52
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
This human caused fire burned 6159 acres just north of Interstate 40, north of Milagro. This so-called Milagro Fire destroyed one outbuilding and damaged another.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 304646.