Hail in Arkansas, May 7, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 60 TO 70 KTS BEING MEASURED AT 925 ON
SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE AREA PROFILER NETWORK. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN TOPEKA AND KANSAS CITY AND
POINTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE MODEL SUITE IS
LARGELY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS OUT OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE TOO BULLISH
WITH THE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...SO WILL AGAIN
DEPICT MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO THE NAM
GUIDANCE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING LOCATED IN CARROLL COUNTY.
WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY TWEAKS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRIOR
TO FINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
YESTERDAYS...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S AND SOME AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 APPROACHING 90. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO
ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 412 BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.

THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MID WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PLAINS...BRINGING THE DRYLINE AND A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAMES STILL APPEAR TO BE PRIME TIME FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY...BUT WILL HANG ONTO SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT INCONSISTENCY IN
THEIR RESPECTIVE PATTERNS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  68  90  71 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   86  66  90  66 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   87  69  88  71 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   86  64  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   81  63  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   78  62  85  65 /  20   0  10  10
MKO   85  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   83  65  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
F10   88  67  89  69 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   88  66  91  70 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071500-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
947 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011

...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 1 AM.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AND PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

ARZ001-010-070930-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
406 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL BENTON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON

AT 406 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF
HEALING SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROCKY COMFORT...MAYFIELD...LOWELL...
HEALING SPRINGS...CAVE SPRINGS...WAR EAGLE...MONTE NE...LOOKOUT...
VAUGHN...SPRINGDALE...SONORA AND OAK GROVE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3623 9388 3623 9389 3609 9394 3625 9433
      3635 9430 3631 9387 3626 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0906Z 288DEG 34KT 3628 9425