High Wind and Strong Wind in California, November 2 to 4, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
848 PM PDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE TODAY. THE
FIRST  STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUATION
OF DRY CONDITIONS BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE SECOND AND THIRD SYSTEMS ARRIVING LATER IN THE
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER...BRINGING SNOW TO THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND RAIN TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVE TO ADJUST VALLEY MAX TEMPS WED DOWNWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGS. NO RECOVERY OF 850MB TEMPS IS SEEN IN THE MODELS
AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING IS
POSSIBLE IN WEAK EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE TEHACHAPIS. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM PDT TUE NOV 1 2011/

DISCUSSION...A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IS INVADING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS ALSO BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST TO THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE VALLEY WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CA AND
A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN THE MEANTIME...A
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE KERN COUNTY DESERT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS TIME... LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE EAST TO
WEST FACING CANYONS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY A MONTH...A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING
WETTING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND WILL TRACK STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE 12Z MODEL DATA HAS BEEN FRAGMENTED
TODAY BECAUSE OF A COMPUTER GLITCH IN SILVER SPRINGS...THE DATA THE
NWS HAS BEEN ABLE TO LOOK AT SHOWS GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY.
BASICALLY...THE MODELS FORECAST THIS STORM SYSTEM TO BARREL THROUGH
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXIT QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY. AS THE STORM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...THURSDAY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY. AND ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTN...
ITS ARRIVAL IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL AFTER DARK WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM FRIDAY.  THE QUICK
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS STORM WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS RELATIVELY
LIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING AND FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPRESSIONABLE. IN ITS WAKE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  ADDITIONALLY...THE
STORM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION DWINDLES FRIDAY
MORNING...LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE SIERRA AND UP TO AN INCH OF SO OF SNOW MIGHT OCCUR ABOVE
PASS LEVEL IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST
SIDE AND SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY AND THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IF NOT SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING US A BREAK FROM WET WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN WE WILL BE GETTING INTO WILL BE ONE WHERE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS TRACK IN SUCCESSION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO CA IN
THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD. TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL VARY WITH
EACH MODEL...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT PRECIPITATION
EPISODES. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE MODELS FORECAST AT LEAST TWO MORE
STORM SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO CA BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE ONE ON ITS HEELS IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED A HEALTH CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
FOR BLOWING DUST FOR THE VALLEY PORTIONS OF FRESNO COUNTY IN
ADDITION TO KINGS COUNTY...MADERA COUNTY AND MERCED COUNTY UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...BINGHAM/DURFEE
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...MENDENHALL

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD