High Wind in Texas, November 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1232 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

.AVIATION...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF FCST. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH MOST OF
IMPACTS EXPECTED NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS
KGUY AND KDHT WILL GET GRAZED BY THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND ATTENDANT REDUCED VSBYS. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...IT APPEARS KAMA WILL ESCAPE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PASSING LIGHT
SNOWSHOWER. CIGS AND VSBYS TO BE MAINLY IN MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS...THEY HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH TO REACH INTO WIND
ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA SO FAR. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
MORE HOURS TO GO BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY SUNSET SO DECIDED
TO LEAVE SPEEDS AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY INHERITED AT THIS TIME...SUBJECT
TO PSBL AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011/

AVIATION...
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY. COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL 3 TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE EVEN MORE
AFTER 14Z/15Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KNOTS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION WEATHER WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM FOR AMA. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY 00Z/01Z AND TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL AT THE GUY/DHT SITES...
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE -SN REMARKS AT GUY...AND INCLUDED -RASN AT DHT
BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z. KEPT CONDITIONS AT MVFR FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP. ALSO KEPT MVFR CIGS AT
AMA AS WELL UNTIL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 00Z. BLOWING
DUST MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE ESP AT AMA BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BEGIN
FREEZE WARNING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THREE HOURS EARLIER.

COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PANHANDLES BY 10 AM.  VERY DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AT ALL
LEVELS.  WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  HAVE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING BRIEF
GUSTS REACHING 58 MPH IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND KEEP ONLY WIND ADVISORY IN THESE
LOCATIONS FOR NOW.

STILL EXPECTING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ENHANCE MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP EARLIER.  ACROSS
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED.  ALL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  BLOWING DUST IS ALSO EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  ALL THIS EXCITEMENT SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
7 PM...WHEN STRONG DOWNWARD MOTIONS BEHIND EXITING MID-LEVEL TROF
ENSUE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

COLD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SECTIONS FREEZING.  MUCH
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.  HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  OTHERWISE...NO POPS AFTER TODAY.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO MAKE A DRY AND WINDY
PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
NO ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS RESUME.  ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS.
WEST WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
ONLY FALL TO AROUND ELEVATED THRESHOLDS.  LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OLDHAM...WHEELER.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-022100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
544 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WITH UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
THE FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 35 TO 40 WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM UNTIL 7 PM FOR NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH HAS NOT YET HAD A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...
INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
WEATHER OBSERVERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY THEIR SNOWFALL REPORTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

COCKRELL