Extreme Cold/Wind Chill, Middle Tanana Valley
- When
- November 15, 12:01 AM AKST to November 21, 11:59 PM AKST
- Where
- Middle Tanana Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- ASOS
Extreme Cold in Alaska, November 15 to 21, 2011
A deep trough dropped out of the high arctic and across the interior of Alaska during the middle of November. The combination of a cold air mass and a clear sky brought the coldest extended period of temperatures to the Fairbanks area prior to Thanksgiving in more than a century of weather observations.
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
A deep trough dropped out of the high arctic and across the interior of Alaska during the middle of November. The combination of a cold air mass and a clear sky brought the coldest extended period of temperatures to the Fairbanks area prior to Thanksgiving in more than a century of weather observations. The average temperature at Fairbanks during the week of November 15-21, 2011 was -30.1 degrees, which was the coldest early winter week on record. Six daily record low temperatures were set at Fairbanks, which included a low of 41 below on the 17th. This was the fifth earliest occurrence of a 40 below on record at Fairbanks. There were also four daily record low maximum temperature records set during this cold snap. The high of 30 below on the 17th was the second earliest occurrence of a daily high of 30 below or lower on record at Fairbanks. As is typical of cold snaps, the coldest temperatures were observed in the North Pole area where there were 6 days with lows in the 40s below, with a low of 49 below on the 17th.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 2:45 PM AKST, 9 hours 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 2:45 PM AKST, 9 hours 16 minutes before
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 245 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2011 .DISCUSSION... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z TUE BUT THE NAM AND THE GFS DO DIFFER IN MOVEMENT OF THE COLD LOW CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AFTER THAT. THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA SKIRTING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA DO NOT MATCH UP ENTIRELY TOO WELL EITHER. ALL OF THE MODELS DO EMPHASIZE THE MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL ALASKA WHICH BY MANY INDICATIONS APPEAR TO BE AROUND FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST 10 DAYS AND LIKELY LONGER. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATION THIS WEEKEND WITH WESTERN ALASKA BUT THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA WILL LIKELY REMAIN REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THIS DOES DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLOUD COVER EXISTS OR NOT OVER MANY OF THESE AREAS. THESE TYPES OF SCENARIOS DO USUALLY PRODUCE OR AT LEAST ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS LOW AS THEY POSSIBLY COULD. A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD TO A MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTATION BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE WITH THE SAME CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE WEEK BUT BE ON THE MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD. SO THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY THU AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A STRONG LOW KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND SPREADS A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT CATEGORY WITH THE NORTH WINDS BEING AMPLIFIED AS THEY SCOOT THROUGH THE STRAIT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH OVER WHAT LITTLE OPEN WATER EXISTS. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && CF NOV 11
Event by event
1 extreme cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.
What these are
- Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
- Temperatures or wind chills at or below the local warning criteria, or cold that caused deaths.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Tornadoes and Damaging Winds in Louisiana, November 15 to 16, 2011
- Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, November 15 to 17, 2011
- Heat in Florida, November 15, 2011
- Damaging Winds in Texas, November 15, 2011
- Heavy Rain in Arkansas, November 15, 2011
- Heavy Snow in North Dakota, November 15, 2011
- Drought in Minnesota, November 15 to 30, 2011
- Tornado in Texas, November 15, 2011
More
Every storm in Alaska in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2011
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 349198.