A stalled frontal boundary produced heavy rainfall across northern and central parts of Arkansas on November 15th and early on the 16th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
A stalled frontal boundary produced heavy rainfall across northern and central parts of Arkansas on November 15th and early on the 16th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 11:50 PM CST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1150 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 .AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT WILL SLOW AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK DURING MID DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 KNOTS...BUT GUSTY AND STRONGER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS. (59) && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FORECASTS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD. A SURFACE BOUNDARY...NOW ENTERING EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY OVERNIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...NOW OVER THE SONORA...CHIHUAHUA BORDER...WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH...AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED...FOCUSED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BEFORE THE WAVE CLEARS. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ONE WORD TO DESCRIBE THE LONG TERM WOULD BE...UNSETTLED. MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIATE ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING IN MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SET UP WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE SET UP EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE FA APPEARS TO BE FROM GLENWOOD TO CONWAY UP THROUGH BATESVILLE. IF THIS PANS OUT...IT WILL OVERLAY THE SAME AREAS AS THE RECENT SYSTEM AND FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING MAY POSE A THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 425 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151100- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 425 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE FRONT STALL OVER ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY LINE UP WITH THE INTERSTATE 30 AND HIGHWAY 67 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 58
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Rainfall for November 15th totalled 5.12 inches. This was the 12th wettest day at Little Rock weather history. This event was also a record for the day. The previous record was 3.91 inches in 2006.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 347609.