High Wind in Washington, January 18, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE WEST COAST IN THE WEEK AHEAD...EACH
ONE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THEN THE PREVIOUS ONE. A COOLER MORE
SHOWERY REGIME IS EXPECTED AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...DEEP LOW ARND 974MB WILL MOVE NORTH TO VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH. THE SATELLITE IMAGE HAS A BENT BACK SWIRL
INTO THE OREGON COAST THIS EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURING WHERE THAT MEETS THE OREGON COAST. ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR COAST OVERNIGHT AS THAT SHIFTS NORTH. THE FCSTS
ALL LOOK VERY REASONABLE AND ALTHOUGH I MIGHT HAVE CHOSEN A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR I CANT ARGUE WITH THE IDEA THAT THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIGHT MIX DOWN AROUND DAYBREAK...OR PERHAPS
INTERACTING WITH THE OLYMPICS AND GOOSING THE WIND SPEEDS FROM
WHIDBEY UP THRU THE SAN JUANS. THE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED
MUCH...BUT THAT BENT BACK SWIRL DOES SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
REACHING STORM FORCE WINDS OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND THE
MESOSCALE MODELS PUNCH STORM FORCE SLIES NORTH JUST OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...DESTRUCTION ISLAND OUGHT BE BE SOUTH 50KT LATE TNGT. THE
WINDS WILL EASE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 10AM AND THE ENDING TIME OF THE
WIND WARNING LOOKS GOOD. IT MAY VERY WELL TURN OUT TO BE A PRETTY
NICE AFTERNOON WITH GRADIENTS TURNING EASTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM...SUNBREAKS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY SLOPPY...THE
EAST GRADIENT HAS BEEN HELPING TO KEEP IT SNOW AT STEVENS...BUT
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY SLOPPY DAY IN THE MTNS. AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE JETSTREAM WILL BE INTO SRN CALIF...BUT THE
SW  FLOW ALF INTO WA WILL MAKE THE COOL DOWN VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL
THRU THE WEEK FOR WA...AWFULLY SLOPPY IN THE MTNS FOR JAN. 19

.LONG TERM...FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A STREAM OF STRONG STORMS IMPACTING THE WEST COAST...BUT AS TIME
GOES BY THEY WILL BE MORE OF A CALIFORNIA PROBLEM AS THE STRONG JET
IS SAGGING SOUTH.  THAT LEAVES OUR AREA IN A WEAK FLOW...WEAK
DYNAMICS SITUATION WHICH IS GOOD FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT NO
STORMS OF SIGNIFICANCE.

BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY END UP WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE WE ARE BACK INTO THE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  TIMING DIFFERENCES/ERRORS
IN THE MODELS DON/T ALLOW FOR PINNING DOWN WHICH TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL BE A QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT TO THE RIVERS OVERALL.  THE ONLY RIVER OF CONCERN IS
THE SKOKOMISH AS IT IS STILL RUNNING RATHER HIGH.  LATEST RIVER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT NOT BY A LOT
SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

AFTER THAT THE REMAINING SYSTEM THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION WILL GENERATE RELATIVELY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THAT
COMBINED WITH SNOW LEVELS EDGING DOWNWARD SOME WILL DIMINISH THE
THREAT OF ANY FLOODING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND WEEKEND.

FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE GREEN RIVER FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE RECENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL
MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCAL LANDSLIDES.  THE USGS LANDSLIDE INDEX
INDICATES THAT THE GROUND REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WET.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...A DEEP 973 MB LOW IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE NORTH
TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND MON MORNING. THE OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN THE BENT-BACK OCCLUSION NOW NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND MON
MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR AS THIS LOW PASSES. THE MAIN EFFECT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL BE DEVELOPING STRONG SE/S WINDS ALONG THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING...AND IN THE NORTH INTERIOR N OF
KPAE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS IN
THESE AREAS WILL BE 30 TO 35 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH S WIND 50-55 KT AT 020-050 BEHIND
TONIGHTS OCCLUSION AND CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 18Z MON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION ON THE
OREGON COAST WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WASHINGTON
COAST LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE INTERIOR AS THE
MAIN THRUST OF THE BACK-BENT TAIL IS NEARLY DUE NORTH.

KSEA...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ESSENTIALLY BKN-OVC040-060. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
WITH THE PASSING OCCLUSION THIS EVENING...THEN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WINDS FL025-050 TO RISE TO S
50-60KT IN THE 06Z-18Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE WIND SHEAR GROUP IN THE
TAF GOING. SURFACE WINDS SE 15 KT TURNING TO S 18-22KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT 10-16Z WITH WIND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AND TURNING NE 5-8 KT
AFTER 18Z. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP 973 MB LOW IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE NORTH
TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND MON MORNING. THE OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN THE BENT-BACK OCCLUSION NOW NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO LATEST NAM12 AND MM5 SOLUTIONS...WILL
UPGRADE THE GALE WARNING ON THE COAST TO A STORM WARNING AND
INDICATE FULL GALE CONDITIONS AT THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT LATE
TONIGHT AND MON MORNING.

SEAS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING ON THE OREGON COAST. EXPECT 22-25 FT
SEAS TO SPREAD N LATE TONIGHT THEN SETTLE BACK TO BELOW 20 FT MON
EVENING. WITH THAT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST WILL BE
MAINTAINED.

ANOTHER DEEP LOW MOVES N THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUE
MORNING...IT APPEARS TO BE MUCH THE SAME AS THE ONE MOVING N THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT. A THIRD LOW FOLLOWS WED MORNING. WITH THE MAIN
JUST AIMED INTO CALIFORNIA...LOWS WILL DEEPEN DOWN THERE...MATURE
OVER THE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS...THEN GRADUALLY DECAY AS THEY MOVE
BY TO THE WEST OF THE WASHINGTON WATERS. STILL THE LOWS WILL BE
RATHER DEEP AS THEY PASS AND GALES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AT TIMES THROUGH MID WEEK.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW TO THE SHORELINE OF
PUGET SOUND AND THE NORTH INLAND WATERS AROUND HIGH TIDE. STRONG
WINDS AND WAVE ACTION WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM. A  COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 5 AM UNTIL 11 AM MON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR
7-8 AM MONDAY MORNING. EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS MAY BE A PROBLEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS WELL AS THE
SECOND AND THIRD SYSTEMS PASS BY TO THE WEST AROUND HIGH TIDE.
ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MON MORNING ALONG THE INLAND WATERS
      OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
    .HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST MONDAY.
    .HIGH WIND WARNING COAST...WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
     NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
     MONDAY.
    .WIND ADVISORY EVERETT AND VICINITY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PZ...STORM WARNING COASTAL WATERS.
    .GALE WARNING STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
    .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1039 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  4 ENE VAIL              46.86N 122.58W
01/17/2010  M44 MPH          THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTS 60

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1153 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WSW GLENOMA             46.51N 122.16W
01/17/2010  E45 MPH          LEWIS              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER OUTAGES

&&