Strong Wind in Kentucky, November 16, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1231 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

CURRENT IR AND RADAR AS OF 15Z SHOW A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN KENTUCKY RANGES SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT AS OF 15Z STILL EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND WILL MOVE TROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL FILL CATEGORICAL POPS BACK THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT LATER TODAY. CONCERN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME HIGH
RETURNS IN THE CELLS IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. JKL
PROFILES TODAY DO SHOW 200 J/K THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS VERY BRIEF SO
AND WEAK SO DID DOWNGRADE BUT KEPT IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL
VARIATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S SO
DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER AIR
FEATURES...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF SOME
OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. USED A BLEND OF THE 21 GMT SREF AND THE 00Z
GMT NAM FOR MAKING CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A FRONTAL
WAVE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. SO MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. I A FAVORING A LOW TRACK
THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH THIS TRACK...THE WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED INTO THE RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
NAM BUFR SOUNDING FOR JACKSON WAS INDICATING A MINUS 2 LI FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ALOFT. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF IT WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE AS IT FALLS
THROUGH 4 TO 5 K OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ON THE WAY DOWN. DID NOT PUT
A MIX IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT BE TO SURPRISED TO SEE A
MIX ON SOME OF THE RIDGE TOPS ON THURSDAY MORNING. FOR TEMPS...I
NUDGED THEM TOWARD THE BIAS AND ELEVATION CORRECT NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AFFECTING THE NATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THEY BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE EAST AND ANOTHER INBOUND FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS
STILL EXHIBITING LARGER THAN OPTIMAL MODEL SPREAD AS IT CROSSES THE
HIGH PLAINS HEADING DUE EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW. WITH THE AMPLIFYING TREND
AND ALL MODELS SLOWING IT DOWN HAVE FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION MOST
CLOSELY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW FROM THE ECMWF IS SUBSTANTIALLY
SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THAT FROM THE GFS AND GEM. HOWEVER...BY 12Z
THURSDAY THE ECMWF HAS NOW OPENED IT UP ENOUGH THAT IT IS ONLY A HALF
A BEAT BEHIND THE OTHER MODELS IN BRINGING IT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. NOW THAT IT IS MOVING WITH THE FLOW...THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...BROAD FLAT
RIDGING PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THIS
RIDGE THEN BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING ANY RIPPLING WAVES OFF
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL THEN
FURTHER BUCKLE THE...NOW SOUTHEAST...RIDGE ON SUNDAY...LIKELY
KEEPING EAST KENTUCKY HIGH AND DRY...BUT ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF
ENERGY TO CREEP CLOSER FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SUPPRESS THE RIDGE A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTH TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS MINOR WAVES WIGGLE PAST.
FOLLOWED THE ECMWF CLOSEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WENT WITH MORE OF
A BLENDED SOLUTION THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN PRODUCING STORM EXITING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATER THAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING ALMOST
DUE EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE STARVED LOW PASSES
THROUGH KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
YIELD A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN. THE THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THIS EVENT
INDICATES THAT ONLY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED...EVEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE FAR EAST. FOLLOWING THIS...QUICKLY MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND RENEW OUR RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST ON MONDAY SO THAT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTHWEST...AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO START
THE WORK WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED GRIDS AND THE
GUIDANCE FROM HPC. KEPT THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE INCREASING IT OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR POPS...HAVE ENDED UP CLOSE TO THE MEX NUMBERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH DID GO A BIT LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WAS
SIMILAR ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA CREATING REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
RAIN AND MIST. LOW CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT AS WELL. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 00Z
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING WEDNESDAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION...JJ/SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171830-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1026 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON RIDGE TOPS TODAY.

PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS AND
RIDGETOPS. VISIBILITY WILL BE DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ/SHALLENBERGER