Drought in Hawaii, July 1 to 31, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED JUN 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO NEAR FRESH STRENGTH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY HIGH
PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTH. PASSING SHOWERS WILL AT TIMES AFFECT
AFFECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN OR WINDWARD AREAS BUT WEATHER WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY OTHERWISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABLE WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET
WITH PWAT ONLY 0.82 INCH OVER LIHUE ON THE AFTERNOON BALLOON
SOUNDING. MOISTURE THAT CAME ASHORE ON BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING PUTS
PWAT ABOVE HILO AT 1.4 INCHES.

A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE APT TO MOVE ONTO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS EVENING...BUT SKIES WERE NEARLY CLEAR JUST UPWIND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF MAUI THAT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A SMALL INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO ALL THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVER MOUNTAIN OR WINDWARD
AREAS...SHOULD NOT LINGER MUCH PAST MID THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING COMING FIRST TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND STABLE WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDTIONS INTO
SATURDAY BUT WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW THE 20 MPH
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 10 AM...
OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND
WEATHER SINCE THE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE IS DOMINATED BY THE
LARGE 1034 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
THE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST IT/S EFFECT WILL BE TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
THE OLD UPPER LOW REMAINS ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST BUT ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW HAS FORMED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY A STRETCHED OUT NARROW TROUGH CAN BE SEEN...ABOUT 300
MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THAT CONNECTS THE TWO LOWS. THE UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
A RIDGE ALOFT FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK
EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH SWINGS DOWN OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WEAKENING THE TRADES A BIT BEGINNING SUNDAY. LATER
FORECAST MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE WHETHER THIS WOULD
SUGGEST ANY INCREASE IN THE OTHERWISE BRIEF TRADE SHOWER PATTERN.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
AREAS OF WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT SURF ON THE HORIZON THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOTICE: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU BEGAN ISSUING
TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS /TAF/ USING INDIVIDUAL PRODUCT HEADERS
BEGINNING WITH THE 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE ON JUNE 30...2010 /THAT IS
200 PM HST JUNE 29...2010/. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
CHANGE...PLEASE SEE /USING LOWER CASE/:

HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/TAF_COLLECTIVE.PHP

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

HOAG