Hail and Damaging Wind in Georgia, June 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TODAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING OR LIFTING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY BUILDING INTO THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATE SUMMER HEATWAVE CONTINUES TODAY AS EXPECTING PIEDMONT MAX
TEMPS IN MIDDLE 90S...A COUPLE OF DEG F LESS HOT THAN THE PAST TWO
DAYS...BUT WITH SFC DWPTS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S. TODAY WILL MARK THE
14TH CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT THE MAX TEMP AT BOTH GSP/CLT WILL EXCEED
90 DEG. DAYTIME HTG TO PROMOTE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE
LATEST HI-RES MESO MODELS INITIATE STORMS ACRS THE MTNS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE E-W ORIENTED BNDRY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
TRIGGERING/FOCUSING MECHANISM. 12 UTC KGSO OBSERVED SNDG INDICATING
ABOUT 15-20 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW...SO THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS BEING THE GREATEST THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SE WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE STALLED FRONT MAY LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD SAT...BUT WITH THE THERMAL CONTRAST STEADILY
DIMINISHING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A WEAK LEE TROUGH SHOULD LINGER JUST
E OF THE MTNS. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE INDICATED SAT AFTN...WITH
THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IN SRN SECTIONS. MID 90S TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...WITH AROUND 90 POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER MTN VALLEYS.

SFC CONVERGENCE WILL FOCUS MOST SHARPLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO BE
STRONGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. CONTINUED WARM PROFILES WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MOST THUNDERSTORMS GARDEN VARIETY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO SAT...WITH PIEDMONT HEAT INDEX
VALUES POSSIBLY A TOUCH HIGHER AT 100 TO 102.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...A DEEPENING VORTEX DEVELOPING OVER SE CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CAUSE LOWER HEIGHTS TO START CASCADING DOWN THE
ERN SEABOARD MON THROUGH TUE. THE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MON...AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUE. SLIGHT COOLING IS IN ORDER MONDAY WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES...WITH TEMPS FALLING A FEW CATEGORIES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH FROPA. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE BY WED...WITH DRIER
SFC HIGH PRES PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW THROUGH THU.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD. THE
GFS SHEARS OUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE INCREASING WESTERLIES BY MID
WEEK...BUT GENERALLY KEEPS ANY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHUNTED
SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY NEVER PICKS UP THE
GULF SYSTEM AND ALLOWS IT TO MIGRATE INTO SRN TX THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. THERE IS A WHOLE RANGE OF TROPICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
BETWEEN...BUT THERE IS NO REASON AT PRESENT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
CURRENT DIURNAL ISOLATED POP CHANCES FEATURED NEXT WED AND THU AFTN.
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR SLIGHT COOLDOWN THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
ON CONTINUED NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...NO CHANGE IN THINKING FROM 15 UTC TAF ISSUANCE...EXPECTING
WIND TO VEER TO SE AND REMAIN LIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE
REMAINS A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTM POTENTIAL. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS GOING PRE-DAWN 6SM BR.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
DRIFT SE INTO THIS EVENING...ENUF OF A CHANCE EXISTS AT ANY ONE
POINT TO INTRODUCE CB MENTION. DIURNAL LESSENING OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
CVRG EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT LEADING TO DEVELOPING...MAINLY MVFR BR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY AREA THAT
RECEIVES HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CSH/JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-260845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
435 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH OR BETTER AS WELL AS QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG...AND
SOUTHEAST OF...THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG