High Wind in New Mexico, September 28, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KATS...TO KGNC...TO
JUST SOUTH OF KSNK AT 11Z...AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH
NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH KMAF BETWEEN 1330Z-1400Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KNOTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT WE CURRENTLY
DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPACT ANY OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KFST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION WITHIN THE TERMINAL
FORECAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ONLY SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEYOND 29/09Z FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INT0 THE AREA TODAY AS A SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM
FLORIDA... ACROSS TEXAS... TO ARIZONA.  THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT INTO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WITH SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST U.S.  THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST BY MID WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND LAMESA AS OF 10Z WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND 12Z AND STEADILY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY.  BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A NORTHEAST WIND UP
TO 25 MPH.  THE DAY WILL START WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS MODELS SHOW INCREASING 700MB MOISTURE.  LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND NIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER.
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AROUND ALPINE.
A FEW LINGERS SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY SOUTH.

NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND EVENT TODAY WITH FROPA AT GDP DUE TO WIND
DIRECTION... BUT SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA.  LOW
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND UP TO MIDDAY TUESDAY.  THESE MAY AFFECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IF THEY ARE SLOW TO BURN OFF.

MIDWEEK LOOK DRY AND WARM WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  HOWEVER
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MAY CREATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR
THE GUADALUPES.

STILL LOOKS WET NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT HEAVY
PRECIP.  ECM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL FEATURE OFF BAJA WITH
MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...
SO PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOK ENCOURAGING... WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN.  LATER SHIFTS WILL ADJUST THESE POPS AS THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OR NOT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

21/72

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
405 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-290915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
405 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009 /305 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE BIG BEND REGION AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...BUT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND