Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in New Jersey, February 3 to 4, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
835 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND RIDES NORTH ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SETTLES OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CHECKING THE MODELS 6 AND 12 HOUR FORECASTS VS VERIFICATION AT 00Z
WE FIND THAT THE GFS IS BETTER (SLOWER) THAN EITHER THE ECMWF AND
WRF-NMM WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW CROSSING
FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC IS
MOVING ALONG SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS HAVE. IN TERMS
OF THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIPITATION AXIS ITSELF, THE WRF-NMM LOOKS THE BEST. THE ONE PLACE
WHERE IT LACKED AND THE ECMWF AND GFS DID BETTER WAS IN PA. ALL THE
MODELS DID NOT DO WELL WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A SHORT WAVE OVER
ALABAMA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS IN THE PRIME DIFFLUENT AREA
BETWEEN JET STREAMS, SO THE FACT THAT IT IS BREAKING OUT DYNAMICALLY
SPEAKING IS NOT A SURPRISE. THIS COUPLET IS SUPPOSE TO BE OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY MORNING, SO IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT TURN THE CORNER HARD ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA FROM THAT
FEATURE.

AS FAR AS THE 500MB AND 700MB GO, THE 500MB SHORT WAVE THAT TAKES A
NEGATIVE TILT OVER OUR CWA ON TUESDAY IS BEING HANDLED THE BEST BY
THE EUROPEAN. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ITS EITHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER OR
SLOWER OVERALL. OVER THE SOUTHEAST THE NOD AT BOTH LEVELS GO TO
THE GFS...IT IS HANDLING THE FLOW PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES IN THE POCONOS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES, WHILE THE VALLEYS HAVE A COATING. SO
BASICALLY THIS UPDATE WILL FOLLOW A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. WE WILL UP THE
POPS BECAUSE THAT CAROLINA PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE MORNING. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY/AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE OVERNIGHT. WE WILL ADJUST MIN AND CURRENT TEMPS BASED
ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS, NO CHANGES TO ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WE HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING FOR SNOWFALL WHICH SHOULD
GENERALLY BE NEAR 4 INCHES, EXCEPT A BIT LESS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND THE EASTERN MD SHORE. HOWEVER, FROM PHL EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
NJ AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NJ AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN DELAWARE,
WE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 4 INCHES OF
SNOW. THE REASON FOR THE WATCH VS THE ADVISORY HAS TO DO WITH
CRITERIA FOR WATCHES. NORTH AND WEST OF PHL, THE CRITERIA IS 6
INCHES. HOWEVER, IN THE EASTERN MD SHORE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL STAY UNDER 4 INCHES SO ONLY AN ADVISORY THERE. IN SRN
DELAWARE, PCPN SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN AND LIMIT ACCUMULATION. EVEN
THOUGH A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED, 4 INCHES IS NOT CERTAIN AND LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK INTO THIS FURTHER.

IT APPEARS THAT OUR ROLLERCOASTER RIDE HAS FINALLY CRESTED ITS LAST
HILL AND IS GETTING READY FOR THE DESCENT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT LATEST RUNS SUGGEST A
TRACK THAT WILL CLIP THE REGION ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW.
DUE TO THIS, WHAT WAS ONCE AN IMPRESSIVE NOREASTER HAS NOW BECOME
A POTENTIALLY MODERATE EVENT.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND RIDES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY
MORNING. ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE FRONT STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS
HELP TO ENHANCE THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST. THIS
ULTIMATELY HELPS PRODUCE A LAVISH ENVIRONMENT FOR THE COASTAL LOW TO
DEEPEN. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
AXIS RESIDES A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT MAY PRODUCE A WIDE SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WELL WEST OF THE PRIMARY LOW OFFSHORE. THE LOW
REACHES THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK TUESDAY EVENING. SINCE WE LIKE TO SEE
LOWS STAY TO THE WEST OF 70W, THIS ONE IS STILL UP IN THE AIR BASED
ON SFC TRACK.

ALL OF THE DYNAMICS ARE PRESENT TO SHOW MAJOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COASTAL LOW. THE LOW DOES NOT BOMB OUT AS ONCE EXPECTED AND THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM. THEREFORE, WE ARE
LOOKING AT AN 18-24 HOUR EVENT AT MOST. HAVE STARTED THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY DAYBREAK AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BUT TRYING TO GET A FINITE IDEA OF STOP AND START TIME IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CONSENSUS SHOWS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT THEY ALSO HINT AT SOME BAGGINESS LEFT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. AT THIS TIME, THE SURFACE FRONT IS
STILL SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN ALMOST THE EXACT SAME AREA AS THE PREVIOUS LOW. THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS WITH THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPING THOUGH. THE FIRST BEING
THE LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY LOW AT THE TIME OF SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS. IF THE PRIMARY LOW DOES NOT MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS
FAST AS FORECASTED IT WILL ROB THE SECONDARY REGION OF ALL THE GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF THE PRIMARY LOW IS TOO STRONG AND ROBS ALL
OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH, THE SECONDARY LOW MAY
NOT FORM, OR IF IT DOES, IT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WILL
FILL QUICKLY.

ALSO, AND THIS IS ONE REASON WE WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
TO DO WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
SLANTWISE INSTABILITY ALOFT. IF THIS SETS UP AS THE GFS SHOWS,
THERE WOULD BE BANDING TO THE SNOW AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF
SNOWFALL WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE NAM DOES
NOT SHOW THIS. FINALLY, EVEN THE ECMWF PRINTED OUT OVER .4 INCHES
LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE WATCH.

AS OF NOW THE STRENGTH OF THE PRIMARY LOW IS STILL UP IN THE AIR (NO
PUN INTENDED) BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WE CAN AT LEAST SAY THERE IS A
SECOND AREA OF DEVELOP. MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY VORT MAX SWINGING DOWN
FROM THE MID-LEVEL LOW, A STAUNCH 150KT JET STREAK AT 250MB, AND THE
NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST, PROVIDING ALL THE
INGREDIENTS FOR SECONDARY DEVELOP.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL MORE THAN LIKELY TRACK WELL FAR TO OUR EAST
AND FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND A NORTHWEST
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN, INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW FREEZING
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS EVERYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS FROM TUESDAY MORNING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION      2IN      4IN      6IN      9IN     12IN
====================================================================

MPO          70       50       25       10        5
ABE          70       50       25       10        5
PHL          70       50       25       10        5
ACY          65       40       20        5       <5
GED          50       20        5       <5       <5

====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

********************************************************************

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GENERAL WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED AS THE COLD TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH AND A RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. SINCE
THE RIDGE DEVELOPS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IN TURN MEANS A SW FLOW DEVELOPING
RATHER THAN AN ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE WE DONT EXPECT AN OCEAN FETCH,
MILDER AIR SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
WARM ADVECTION TYPICALLY FORMS SOME PCPN WITH IT, I KEPT THE FCST
DRY FOR NOW AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING AND PINPOINTING ANY
PCPN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS A GUESS AT BEST. HPC TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, TO A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA,
AND IS VERY NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR
IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG INITIALLY BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND ALSO THE OHIO VALLEY.
A VERY DISTINCT CLOUD EDGE IS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS KRDG AND KABE,
HOWEVER THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CLOUD BAND IS RATHER SLOW.
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED THOUGH FROM ABOUT
KTTN ON NORTHWARD. WE TRENDED TO A SLOWER INCREASE IN VFR CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST, HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THE SKY TO
CLOUD UP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD WELL WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND THIS IS GENERALLY LIGHT. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS FOR KABE AND KRDG INTO THE EVENING. THE SURFACE WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT HAVE BEEN LIGHT, HOWEVER A NORTHERLY PREVAILING
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE. WE THEN
TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE SOUTH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND PROBABLY
REORGANIZE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT IS LOCATED WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION OCCURS TONIGHT, THEREFORE WE CARRIED VCSH AT THE
TERMINALS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS
THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TUESDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK FAIRLY
FAR TO OUR EAST. THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT THE STORM TRACKS TO OUR
EAST, HOWEVER SOME ENERGY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS LOOK TO TEAM UP TO PRODUCE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY. IT MAY SNOW FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER THE
RATES WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE AN ORGANIZED SWATH OF MODERATE SNOW
TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHERE THIS WOULD SET UP IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR. WE LEANED THE 18Z TAFS TO INDICATE A STEADY LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY,
THEN LOWERING THE VISIBILITIES SOME MORE AS THE SNOW MAY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY. THE CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER FROM VFR THIS
EVENING TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR DURING TUESDAY.
WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR, OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THEREFORE WE
LOWERED CEILINGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR RANGE FOR NOW. A NORTHERLY
WIND TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE QUICKLY TRACKING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP
SOME SNOW GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. WE THEN
ANTICIPATE A NORTHWESTERLY WIND TO INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES
EAST DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT IT LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH.
A WARM FRONT THEN ORGANIZES NEARBY AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO DEVELOP WITH IT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE. THE
SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE HAD SEAS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER COASTAL
REPORTING SITES INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE WATERS HAVE SEAS IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE SOUTH AS A
STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP SOME ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS
WOULD OCCUR STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY. THE
INCREASING WIND WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD. THE DELAWARE BAY IS A
LITTLE TRICKY AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A MARGINAL
ADVISORY EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND DURING TUESDAY. GIVEN THAT OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM, WE WILL NOT
DROP THE ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR THE BAY, BUT JUST ADJUST THE
TIMING TO TRY TO BETTER HINT AT WHEN THE CRITERIA /WINDS/ MAY OCCUR.
FOR THE OCEAN ZONES, WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL ABOUT 10Z
WEDNESDAY FOR NOW AS SEAS ESPECIALLY WILL BE UP. THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY RELAX FOR A TIME AS AN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE PINWHEELS ACROSS THE
AREA. CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PROLONG THE GUSTY WINDS,
AND AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE BAY AS WELL. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY AS
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE SOME
FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING AROUND MIDWEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
WOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN THE WINDS BACKING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
WITH TIME. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ORGANIZE IN OUR VICINITY LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD DURING SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE MILDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION, THEREFORE
DESPITE THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, THE STRONGER WINDS MAY
TEND TO NOT REACH THE SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
DEVELOPING.

REGARDING TIDES, THE STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE COMPLETELY ONSHORE.
WE ARE IN BETWEEN THE NEW AND FULL MOON, THEREFORE WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING PROBLEMS ATTM. WE WILL MONITOR THOUGH AS PERHAPS SOME
MINOR FLOODING OCCURS AT BEST DURING HIGH TIDE, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM, BLOW-OUT
TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-067>069.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ070-071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ007>010-012>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ016>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM EST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431.

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/STAUBER/GIGI
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER/MEOLA/STAUBER/GIGI/LOSIER
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-067>069-032230-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-002-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-032230-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-032230-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-032230-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-032230-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-032230-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-032230-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
530 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.