High Surf in Hawaii, February 3 to 4, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST TUE FEB 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE STATE RESULTING IN GENTLER TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SHOWERY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO LESS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS MOST OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE SHEAR LINE SLIDES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS MAY BRING BACK
SCATTERED SHOWERS STATEWIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DISSIPATING SHEAR LINE IS GUESSTIMATED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN BIG
ISLAND THIS HOUR AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THE
STRONG AND GUSTY TRADES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS TODAY. THE COORDINATES OF THE SHEAR LINE ARE 22N141W 20N160W.
THE SHEAR LINE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
26N140W. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE SHOWERS MAY START LETTING UP
ACROSS KAUAI THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS OAHU THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ESSENCE THE TREND FOR FEWER SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD SINCE THE GFS MODELS
POINTS TO A LOW...STRONG INVERSION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS UP TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE BREEZY. THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND ON THE OTHER
HAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DAMP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE OF THE SHEAR LINE BEING TRAPPED THERE. EXPECT THE
TRADES TO START TONING DOWN THURSDAY SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS HIGH IS CURRENTLY 850 MILES
NORTH NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1031 MILLIBAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
HOLDING AT ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH. DENSE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
CURRENTLY COVERS THE 50TH STATE...AND IS EXPECT TO BE WITH MOST OF
US THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK GETS INTERESTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ENTERING THE PICTURE. THE VERY LATEST GFS RUN GOES AS FAR INTO
BRINGING ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONVECTIVE...AFTERNOON BASED. THE GREATEST OF THE INSTABILITY LIES
OVER THE BIG ISLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS TRADE WIND BASED. THEREFORE THE DAY CREW MAY NEED TO
UPDATE THE WEEKEND FORECAST SHOULD THE ENSUING MODEL RUNS PERSIST
IN A LIGHT WIND SCENARIO.

SO FAR A COUPLE OF WIND SENSORS ARE REGISTERING GUSTS TRADES THIS
HOUR. BELLOWS ON OAHU HAS GUSTS TO 25 MPH WHILE THE LIPOA MAUI
SENSOR IS PICKING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. DO EXPECT THE TRADES TO RATCHET
UP A COUPLE OF NOTCHES AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
DATA FROM THE WAIMEA BUOY SUGGEST THE NORTHWEST SWELL HAS RISEN TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 15 FEET. THIS HAS WARRANTED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI
AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. SWELL DATA FROM MOKAPU/KAILUA BUOY ALSO
POINT TO AN ELEVATED NORTH SWELL. THEREFORE EXPOSED NORTH FACING
SHORES OF EAST OAHU WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER AS WELL.

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A BUILDING SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL
THE WAVE WATCH MODEL IS ALLUDING TO. IF THIS PANS OUT...IT WILL
WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES LATER TODAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DO EXPECT THE SCA TO BE EXTENDED
SOME TIME TODAY FOR THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE TRADES WILL REMAIN
LOCALLY STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI
AND MAUI UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS UNTIL 6 AM HST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

H LAU