A storm force low center down to 964 MB moved to just south of Middleton Island on the afternoon of 10/22. The associated front caused strong winds along the west side of Prince of Wales Island that afternoon.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A storm force low center down to 964 MB moved to just south of Middleton Island on the afternoon of 10/22. The associated front caused strong winds along the west side of Prince of Wales Island that afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 22, 5:09 AM AKST, 6 hours 21 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...THE 13Z SATELLITE REVEALS A DEEPENING GALE FORCE
LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND THIS SURFACE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WHILE SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING LOW HAS A
WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING AT MID LEVELS...THERE ARE
INDICATION OF A DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE
DIMINISHED WIND FIELD AS THE CAA IS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN TO 968 MB BY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN GULF. BLENDED GRIDS HEAVILY TOWARD THE
00Z GFS/03Z SREF SOLUTION AS THEY INITIALIZED THE MID LEVEL
VORTICITY FIELD...SURFACE LOW POSITION AND FRONTAL TIMING THE
BEST THIS MORNING. THE 00Z NAM WAS ONCE AGAIN TO SLOW WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE.
FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW IN THE YUKON AND THE DEEPENING GALE FORCE LOW IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY
NOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS A 75 KNOT LLJ
850 MB JET WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER COAST. CONCERNED
COULD SEE GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH ESPECIALLY NEAR HYDABURG...BUT SINCE
THE SURFACE LOW ADVECTS NORTHWESTWARD AND NOT TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE CHOOSE TO KEEP WINDS IN THE ADVY RANGE ALONG THE OUTER
COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ADDED AKZ026 TO THE LIST OF WIND
ADVYS AS THE WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GALE FORCE LOW WILL
ALLOW THE STRONG LLJ WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW AND THE GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR PAKT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE BARRIER
JET IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT THE GALE FORCE LOW WILL ADVECT TOWARD KODIAK AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIND ADVY GUSTS ALONG
THE OUTER COAST...SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY NEAR JUNEAU IN
THE EVENING UNTIL THE 850 MB LLJ WEAKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE NEAR HAND OFF WITH LONG TERM AND WILL SEE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR PAHN...PAGY AND TAIYA INLET. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN INNER CHANNELS AS THE SECONDARY FRONT
AND CAA AT MID LEVELS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE AND SCATTERED.
.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT THEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS DIVERGE GREATLY. THIS LARGE SPREAD HAS
RESULTED IN LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN. USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND EC THROUGH
THE MID-RANGE THEN DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD A UPPER TROF WILL BE
LIFTING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER TROF IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LOW ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER
OVER WESTERN AK AND THE BERING THAT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF
OF AK AND THE PANHANDLE VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING
AND SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI EVENING. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY STRONG SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME ICE PELLETS OR LIGHTENING. A UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG LOW LIFTING INTO THE
GULF AND THAT RIDGE LATE FRI NIGHT AND WILL STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND SCATTERED THEM OUT. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ONCE THE THE SURFACE TROF
LIFTS INTO CANADA AND INCREASE THE SOUTHERN WINDS OVER THE MARINE
AND LAND AREAS FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER
LYNN CANAL TO MAX SMALL CRAFT AND CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR
PAGY AND PAHN. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST THE WINDS WILL RELAX.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
PHASE WITH A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD ARES OF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AND ROTATE INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO A
970S LOW AND SEND A STRONG FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOLID GALES OVER THE
GULF AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WILL REACH
WIND ADVY CRITERIA. ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS THERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS FROM THE EAST NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE OVER THE LAND AREAS. THE STEADY
MODERATE RAIN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A DEVELOPING WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE
CHARLOTTES AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW RETROGRADES BACK TO THE EAST
FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
SUN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
AFTER MON AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE IS LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MODELS. THE GFS WANTS TO ADVECT ANOTHER STRONG LOW INTO THE GULF
AS A ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING DRIFTS INTO
THE GULF. THE EC IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
JET ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AND PUSHES A LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS
THE GFS DRIFTS THE LONG WAVE TROF TO THE EAST IT PUMPS UP A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND WESTERN AK TO INCREASE THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND SEND VERY COLD AIR OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE NEW
00Z EC SHOWS SOMETHING LIKE THAT BUT IT IS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER
HIGH OVER THE AK PENN. SO WITH THAT SAID DID LOWER TEMPS SOME LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE DETAILS ARE STILL SKETCHY...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD BE THE FIRST COLD AIR OUT
BREAK OF THE YEAR FOR SE AK.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT
FOR AKZ026.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ022-023-027.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR
AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-052.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>035-041>043-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-032.
&&
PSS/ABJ1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hydaburg AWOS observed a measured gust of 53 KT at 1136 AKST on 10/22. Numerous gusts in the 40s were observed across the Island during this event.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 199363.