Winter Storm in Vermont, February 26 to 27, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 611 AM EST TUESDAY...SENT MINOR UPDATE TO SPEED UP ONSET OF
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND REACH
THE GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL RESULT IN
HEAVIER SNOWS...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
EXPECTED. DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOWS GOING OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AROUND AN INCH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE ABOUT 36 HOURS
OF SNOW AND THE WELL DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING OUR
AREA...CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK. WILL MENTION
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OF VERMONT...AND 12 TO 16
INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EST TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM THE AREA TO FINALLY START TO SEE THE SNOW COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY
THURSDAY BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EST TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FCST WITH TWO ADDL SYSTEMS LIKELY
AFFECTING THE FA. MEAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OF
REGIONAL WX CONDS DURING THU NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS EXPECTED...AND WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT MIN TEMP GUIDANCE
BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT IN THE 7-DAY PD. BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING LATEST
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLNS MAINTAIN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING FAIRLY POTENT NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM RIDING
QUICKLY ESE INTO THE REGION AROUND BASE OF SEMI-STATIONARY AND
DEEP UPPER POLAR GYRE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS AN UNCOMMON BUT MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING THE LOW ESE DIRECTLY ACROSS NRN HALF OF
FA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLN HAS BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS
EURO SOLN AS WELL AS A MAJORITY OF THE MREF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS.
THUS HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC DURING THE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT
PERIODS DUE TO THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE. A QUICK LOOK AT MEAN
PARTIAL THICKNESS PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW AND/OR SHSN
FROM THIS EVENT AND HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY MIXED
PTYPE ATTM. LINGERING SHSN THEN SLOWLY WANE DURING SATURDAY AS
SYSTEM DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

THEREAFTER...A QUICK PERIOD OF GENERALLY FAIR/DRY WX BY LATER SAT
NIGHT AS BRIEF SW RIDGING BRIDGES ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ADDL
ENERGY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NC PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL ALLOW A
FAIRLY POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO EASE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE REGION
BY MONDAY...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON EXACT
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURES ATTM. THAT SAID...BROAD WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGING DOES APPEAR TO ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN CONUS BY THIS PERIOD...THUS MILDER TEMPS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH FAIRLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONT.
AGAIN...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL USE MORE CONSERVATIVE CHCS OF SHRA
AND/OR SHSN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...OVERALL DETERIORATION IN WX CONDS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AFFECTS REGION.
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO OCCNL IFR CIGS/VIS IN -SN THIS MORNING TO LOWER
TO IFR/LIFR ALL AREAS IN -SN/SN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW
NEARS. MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO OCCNLLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE LIFR CONDS
MOST LIKELY. LIGHT WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK TO NORTH/NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE INCREASING TO 5 TO
15 KTS AS LOW SWINGS BY TO THE SOUTH.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS IN SNOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO WED AS COMBINATION
OF GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY WEAKENING DEFORMATION AXIS AFFECT
THE REGION. THEREAFTER...LINGERING LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN TO  CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. EXPECT MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDS
WITH THISACTIVITY...ESP IN THE NORTHERN MTNS UNDER PRONOUNCED NW
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY NIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION AS A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM
DROP ESE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING IS SNOWFALL CLIMATOLOGY DATA FOR BURLINGTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH FEB 25TH 2007.

TOP TEN GREATEST FEBRUARY MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTALS:
1.)  34.3 IN 1958
2.)  33.8 IN 1993
3.)  32.1 IN 2007
4.)  31.4 IN 1947
5.)  30.7 IN 2008 ***CURRENT***
6.)  29.9 IN 1954
7.)  29.7 IN 2005
8.)  29.0 IN 1898
9.)  28.5 IN 1966
10.) 27.6 IN 1910

WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING OUR 5TH SNOWIEST FEBRUARY EVER AT
BTV...WITH 3 OUT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST FEBRUARY OCCURRING IN THE
PAST 4 YEARS.

TOP TEN SNOWIEST SEASONAL (FROM JULY 1ST THROUGH JUNE 30TH)
SNOWFALLS AT BTV:
1.)  145.4 1970-71
2.)  132.0 1886-87
3.)  122.5 2000-01
4.)  116.9 1992-93
5.)  113.5 1887-88
6.)  111.6 1965-66
7.)  108.9 1971-72
8.)  107.2 1993-94
9.)  104.6 1969-70
10.)  99.4 1977-78

OUR CURRENT SEASON TO DATE SNOWFALL IS 95.5 WHICH PLACES US 15TH
SNOWIEST SEASON EVER AT BTV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...TABER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-270830-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
328 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

EVENSON