Hail and Damaging Wind in Louisiana, February 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008

.UPDATE...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS MAKING PRETTY GOOD PROGRESS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 30 KNOTS. FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THROUGH KAEX-KLCH AROUND 3AM AND KLFT
AROUND 6AM.

THE 26/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
CAP OF ABOUT 6C AROUND 85H OR 5K FEET. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRONTAL SYSTEM REACHES THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL PROGGS SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
VWP SHOWS WINDS AROUND 85H HAVE INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS RECENTLY. SO
THIS SHOULD HELP AID IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE...STILL
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS.

INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO
THE REGION WOULD EXPECT CAP TO BEGIN TO LESSEN...SO STILL COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AT
THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SEEM TO BE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP CAN BE OVER-COME ENOUGH...STEEP
LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL...ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WET-BULB ZEROS WILL BE LOWER.

WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AND PWAT ONLY AROUND ONE
INCH...HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND FRONTAL LIFT...REPORTS
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS SHOW THAT THE DENSE SEA FOG HAS LIFTED.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/

UPDATE...
REPORTS FROM LAKE CHARLES PILOTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. ALSO...SINCE I WAS UPDATING THE CWF WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...AS WE
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE 12 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
TO DEVELOP.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST MON FEB 25 2008/

SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A STRATUS
DECK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG LINGERING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE THE REMNANTS OF AN AREA OF MARINE AIR THAT SPREAD
NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE OVERCAST SKIES HAVE HELD
TEMPERATURES IS CHECK TODAY WITH HIGHS SO FAR LOWER 70S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AEX WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILERS INDICATE GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA.

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ENTERING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST DYNAMICS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NE PORTIONS OF CWA BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF ZONES
FOR NOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS CAN MONITOR SHOULD WINDS BE
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY AS
DECENT CAA WILL OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE THIRTIES...WITH
TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE LAKES AREA AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LA.

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND RETURN FLOW RESUMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
INDICATES A STRONGER FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BPT AROUND
06Z...LCH AND AEX BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...AND AT LFT AND ARA AROUND
12Z. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT AEX...LFT AND ARA.
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  61  36  60 /  30   0   0   0
KBPT  53  63  37  61 /  30   0   0   0
KAEX  50  57  32  56 /  40   0   0   0
KLFT  56  61  35  57 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&