Winter Weather in Texas, March 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
420 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.SHORT TERM...
STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA AND ITS EVOLUTION TODAY
ARE THE FOCUS OF THIS FCST CYCLE. APPEARS TROUGH AT 500MB WILL STAY
OPEN AND POSITIVELY TILTED WHILE CLOSED LOW AT 700MB DEPICTED BY
AREA PROFILERS SITTING OVER CNTL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
700MB LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT WITH JET ENERGY ON THE
WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM NEARING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WOULD EXPECT
LOW TO BEING MOVING EWD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH A THIN LAYER OF MOIST MID-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DPVA ARE HELPING TO MOISTEN FROM TOP
DOWN AS DEPICTED BY INCREASING AREA OF MID-LEVEL RADAR RETURNS OVER
THE FCST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING THIS FAIRLY WELL AND WOULD
EXPECT A LITTLE MORE TIME BEFORE PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR
AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA. STILL LARGELY TRACK-DEPENDENT...AND AS
LONG AS THIS LAST BIT OF JET ENERGY DOES NOT ADJUST THE TRACK OF THE
LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT THE NRN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES
ON THE CAPROCK TO BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY GIVEN BIT OF EXTRA BUMP FROM UPSLOPE
OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ZONES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH FOR
THOSE AREAS IS NOT AS HIGH. MODELS TAKE THE 700MB LOW TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LINGER THE 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERIOD OF GREATEST LIFT
THUS DIMISHES PRETTY QUICKLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN AREAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SNOWFALL WITH TRIM A BIT
OFF THE INHERITED SNOW ADVISORY.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WITH PERIOD OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO END
BY MID-AFTERNOON POSSIBILITY OF WARMUP LATE IN THE DAY A
POSSIBILITY. APPEARS CLOUDS WILL HANG FAIRLY TIGHT AND WILL THUS
KEEP DIURNAL RANGE PRETTY LOW.

.LONG TERM...
DEEP/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS
FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG PIECE
OF ENERGY WILL RAPIDLY DIG INTO THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWFA. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
FALL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO WARM ON FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN WELL SHORT OF NORMAL
LEVELS.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY NICE AT THIS TIME WITH
NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING
ACRS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ROCKIES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS BOTH INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
CLOSE EYE ON THE FAR NORTHWEST CWFA FOR PERHAPS A SNOW/RAIN
MIXTURE EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  20  43  22  58 /  80  10  10  10   0
TULIA         35  21  45  24  60 /  80  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     35  22  47  24  61 /  70  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     35  23  48  25  62 /  60  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       35  23  49  26  62 /  60  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   36  24  50  27  62 /  50  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    36  23  50  27  62 /  50  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  25  49  26  62 /  50  10  10  10   0
SPUR          37  25  50  27  64 /  50  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     37  25  52  30  64 /  50  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.

&&

07/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
500 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

TXZ021>044-071100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
500 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OFF THE
CAPROCK. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...OR MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MULESHOE TO
FLOYDADA. ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL BE LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.