Flooding in Indiana, March 6 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS...OF COURSE...WITH THE WINTER
STORM POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.

VERY COMPLEX MID/UPPER STORM SYSTEM TO EVOLVE RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATER ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOW THIS PATTERN
EVOLVES WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE DEVELOPING LOWER LEVEL CYCLONE
TRACKS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHAT MAKES THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
MID/UPPER LOW UNCERTAIN IS HOW EXACTLY THE NRN BRANCH/SRN BRANCH
PHASE ON FRIDAY. TO MAKE THE SITUATION MORE UNCERTAIN...THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED MODELS IN THE SHORTER TERM (GFS/NAM) SEEM TO BE
THE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN AND OTHERS.

THE LATTER GROUP OF MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN EVOLUTION/PHASING
OF THE TWO BRANCHES INTO A CLOSED OFF H50 LOW WELL SOUTH OVER TN FRI
NIGHT. THIS WOULD FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHEAST SFC LOW...WITH A
HEAVY SNOW BAND FRI NIGHT OVER OUR SE THIRD OF COUNTIES...ESP
PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SW IN. HOWEVER...THE GFS/NAM...WANT TO PHASE
THE TWO BRANCHES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A WARMER REGIME OVER OUR SE AND HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF THE OH RIVER. WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONTINUITY FOR NOW AND LEAN
TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION (SFC LOW FURTHER SE) FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE GFS/NAM TRENDS. THE
GFS IS VERY DIFFICULT TO BEAT (SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING) IN THE NEARER
TERM...AND SYSTEMS THE ENTIRE WINTER HAVE FAVORED A FURTHER N/W TREK
THAN ADVERTISED 2-3 DAYS OUT.

THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST AREAS TIL LATER
TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE WHETHER
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR MUCH SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE...ESP OVER OUR SE AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY (WHERE
QPF SHOULD BE HEAVIEST).

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...WILL NOT UPGRADE OR EXPAND HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT WATCH STILL SEEMS TO
CATCH THE ECMWF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING APPEARS
ALMOST CERTAIN SOMEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE MESO ASPECTS OF THE
STORM...ESP OUT IN THE 4TH PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR...PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.

LOOKING BEYOND THIS STORM...BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS SHOULD BE
QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKING INTO
SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH...WITH A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. BOTH MODELS PUSH THIS
FRONT ON THROUGH BUT ONLY THE GFS WOULD INDICATE ANY QPF...BUT IT
IS VERY LIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THIS FRONT ON
THROUGH THOUGH. WILL LEAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING AT THIS POINT AND
WAIT FOR BETTER CONTINUITY. MONDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS COMPLETELY DIFFER ON WHAT IS TO HAPPEN. THE 00Z
GFS INDICATES A CLOSED LOW/UPPER SYSTEM TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING.
THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. SO WITH THAT SAID...NOT GOING TO BUY INTO ANY SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME AND WAIT TO SEE HOW MODELS RESOLVE THE FINER DETAILS OF
THIS NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE KINDA TRICKY DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES.
WATCHING THE EVOULTION OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOT BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...ITS A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE. SO WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO GOING TEMP GRIDS...KNOWING THAT THINGS WILL CHANGE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
KCGI AND KEVV DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES...BUT OTHERWISE
ONLY SOME CIRRUS WAS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AS OF 09Z. BUT THE
LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS THAT IS STEADILY MOVING INTO THE AREA IS
WHAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS DECK IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
ALSO BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK IS JUST ABOUT TO
REACH KCIG AND THE CLOUD DECK WILL REACH THE OTHER TERMINALS WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE QUESTION IS...HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR
THIS DECK TO MOVE OUT OF HERE...AND WILL IT TEND TO SCATTER OUT BY
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...SO THAT EVEN IF WE DO SCATTER OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE WILL BE A SOLID MID DECK IN PLACE (AS
EVIDENT BY THE MID/UPPER CLOUDS ALREADY HEADING OUR WAY)...WITH A
NEW LOWER DECK DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WHEN TO
INTRODUCE PRECIP. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SNOW COULD
START ANYTIME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. WILL TRY TO HONE IN ON A TIME PERIOD THAT WE MIGHT SEE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW
     MADRID-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR ALEXANDER-GALLATIN-HARDIN-JOHNSON-MASSAC-POPE-PULASKI-
     SALINE-UNION IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT)...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....CW
AVIATION...CW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
508 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071215-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
508 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO
CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO CARMI ILLINOIS LINE. SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN IN SOME AREAS...WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE REGION TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF SEVERAL AREA RIVERS.
REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SOUTH OF A MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO CARMI
ILLINOIS LINE. SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE REGION. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE WINTER STORM.

IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PORTIONS OF SEVERAL
AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AS USUAL...REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.