High Wind in South Dakota, May 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

.UPDATE...
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NE SODAK AND WEST
CENTRAL MN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY...ENDING AT 02Z.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WARMER AND WINDY
WEST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH TODAY AND COOLER AND
BREEZY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
CLIPPER LOW WORKS THROUGH.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING PRECIPITATION THREAT IN
THE MORNING AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL ALSO NEED TO ADDRESS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STORM SYSTEM CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN DIMINISHING
INTENSITY...HOWEVER A FEW STRAGGLERS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MT
ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX. THE JET MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID MORNING. WHILE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INFLUENCED BY RECENT RAIN...GOING FORECAST HINGES ON
DRIER/COOLER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO REGION. WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...FIRE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES FOCUS AS DRIER AIR AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MIX TO SURFACE. DESPITE DRIER AIR WORKING TO
SURFACE...AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY COMBINE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WOULDNT EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION AS
CLOUD BASES TO EXCEED 6KFT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR MIN TEMPS...GOING FORECAST OF LOW 40S IS
APPROPRIATE. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD FOR REST OF
PERIOD...KEEPING FORECAST DRY. H85 TEMPERATURES CHANGE
LITTLE...WITH COOL AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND WARMER AIR DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND TROUGHS OVER BOTH COASTS. A SURFACE LOW WILL EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WITH PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
GULF...AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES VERY LITTLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG. THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS ON
FRIDAY AND BECOMES MORE ELONGATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH TO THE EAST LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE DOMINANT
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...SO HAVE CUT POPS OUT OF THE
EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST LEFT A SMALL POP IN THE
WEST. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD ON FRIDAY WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BECOMING ORIENTED FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP A SMALL POP FOR TRW GOING BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND REMAINS DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THURSDAY BEFORE WAA
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DID NOT
CHANGE HPC FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BEHIND THE
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. VSBYS WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TODAY...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING KABR AND KATY.
CIGS WITH ANY STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE BETWEEN 5K-7K FEET.

THE KMBG ASOS CONTINUES TO BE INOPERABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
THE KMBG TAF WILL NOT BE ROUTINELY AMENDED UNTIL THE ASOS AT THAT
AIRPORT IS OPERABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND HAVE EXTREME AND VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DRY AIRMASS THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND CURRENTLY DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS H7 LAYER/7 KFT DURING
THE DAY...SO VERY STRONG MIXING WILL CAUSE RH/DEWPOINT TO DROP
RAPIDLY DURING THE LATE MORNING DESPITE THE EVAPORATION OF THE
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF RAIN THAT WAS RECEIVED OVERNIGHT. H7 LAYER
WINDS FORECAST TO MIX TO SURFACE RANGE AROUND 40KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SO STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL EXACERBATE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. MID TO LATE EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF RAPIDLY TO END THREAT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER
     MISSOURI COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT
FIRE WEATHER...DORN/TARVER/FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1148 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-201700-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
1148 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008 /1048 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
VERY DRY CONDITIONS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH...AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY VEGETATION FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SDZ006-007-011-018>020-022-033>037-045-048-051-201700-
BROWN-MARSHALL-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-HAMLIN-STANLEY-SULLY-
HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1148 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008 /1048 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-021-023-201700-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-ROBERTS-GRANT-DEUEL-
1148 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DORN