Rip Current in Florida, May 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS BEING DRIVEN BY TWO SURFACE/LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND THE GREATER ANTILLES AND A
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND KEEPING THE
AREA UNDER GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WHILE THE FRONT
IS STALLING AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SHOULD LINGER AROUND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THERE HAS BEEN JUST OCCASIONAL STRIKES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BUT AS WARMING TAKES PLACE IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD TO LEE COUNTY.

WITH WET ROAD CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVERS MUST EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHILE DRIVING UNDER
RAIN AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG MAJOR INTERSTATES AND
HIGHWAYS DURING RUSH HOUR.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPPER OFF AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE
REGION. FORECAST WILL CARRY AFTERNOON 30 POPS FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOWERING TO ISOLATED 20 PERCENT ON
TUESDAY.

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING. WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE EXPECT EVENING AND EARLY MORNING TEMPS TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...INTERESTING PATTERN FOR MID
MAY WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND A COOL
FRONT PRESSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FORECAST AREA IS IN
THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH HAS FILLED ON THE SOUTHERN END KEEPING A CONTINUED WARM AND
MOIST FLOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE STATE.
SATURDAY THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS FLORIDA AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS BRINGS AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR A WHILE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGS
COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE PATTERN
STARTS TO MODERATE WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHES FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTH TO NEAR PUNTA GORDA. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON LOOSING INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP GENERALLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD BEGIN RELAXING
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST MARINE BULLETINS AND STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN FLORIDA AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IN CASE WINDS BECOME MORE ROBUST THAN
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO RH CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  84  75  89 /  20  30  10  20
FMY  73  87  75  89 /  20  30  10  20
GIF  71  87  73  91 /  20  30  10  20
SRQ  75  82  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  67  86  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
SPG  74  84  78  87 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...REYNES
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PAXTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
635 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-192245-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
635 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

A COOL FRONT MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-192245-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
635 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE BAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...BRIEF BUT VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE TO THE NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
THEN DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

A COOL FRONT MOVING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PAXTON