Lightning Strike in South Dakota, June 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.UPDATE...
SFC LOW STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH BIG QUESTION ON WHERE CLEARING LINE AND WAA WILL
LINE UP LATER THIS AFTN. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT MAJORITY OF CWA
WILL BE COLD SECTORED...WITH BIG RAIN/HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE
UPDATED NEAR TERM WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...AND STILL EXPECTING SVR LATER THIS AFTN.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG UPPER JET HAS ROUNDED BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH AND IS BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION INDICATES HEAVIEST
RAIN FELL ACROSS JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
OVER 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN. WILL LET FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING AS IT IS STILL RAINING ACROSS THIS AREA. DRYING IS
NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS WAVE LIFTS NORTH.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DECENT DRYING TAKING PLACE AND PRECIP IS NOW
ENDING ACROSS JONES AND LYMAN COUNTIES. FEEL MUCH OF THE MORNING
MAY IN FACT BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL NEXT WAVE OF
ENERGY MOVES INTO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
STILL HAS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS YET THIS MORNING AS
WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE AT THIS TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS MOVED
MODERATE RISK AREA BACK TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE JAMES
VALLEY...PUTTING A PORTION OF THE CWA WITHIN MODERATE RISK. HAVE
INCLUDED T+ IN GRIDS AND MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. SHEAR
IS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTH. CAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SD AND EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE THE MOST PROBLEMS
WITH SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONCERNING CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY...MIGHT BE ABLE TO CANCEL CURRENT FLOOD WATCH BEFORE 18Z
EXPIRATION TIME AS THE DRYING TAKING PLACE NOW IS BRINGING AN END
TO THE PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL SD. WILL LET IT
RIDE THOUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MODERATE RAIN IS STILL
OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN END OF FLOOD WATCH. DAY SHIFT MAY
CONSIDER A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT 1/3/6 HR FFG GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THEY RANGE
FROM ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WAS THE MAIN REASON
FOR HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FFG GUIDANCE VALUES
REMAIN MUCH LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE OUT PERIODS AND HAVE GONE WITH GFS
NCEP SOLUTION. SATURDAY THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION NOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF INTO CANADA WITH GOOD
DRYING BEHIND IT. AN INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL H5 SEQUENCE IS
DEPICTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ENSURE AN
UNSETTLED EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE FIRST H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST A WEAK PACIFIC LOW NORTH OF MONTANA. THIS LOW MOVES VERY
SLOWLY EAST AND IS NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA BY MONDAY
MORNING. BY MONDAY THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW HAD FORMED AND DIGS
SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING NORTH WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT. IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO HAVE MEANINGFUL
PROBABILITY GRIDS WITH SUBTLE FEATURES MAKING TIMING VERY
DIFFICULT HAVE NO REAL PROBLEM WITH GOING GRIDS. EXPECT THERE WILL
BE FURTHER REFINEMENT AS TO TIMING. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO ADD A
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TUESDAY EVENING PERIOD. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. GFS IS MOST BULLISH ON
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES EAST WITH A STRONG SURFACE REFLECTION. ECMWF AGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD BUT WITH A DIFFERENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN BUT A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH AT THIS TIME. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS
THE HANDLING OF A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC LOW THAT ARRIVES ON THE
WETS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE LOW
TOGETHER WHILE THE GFS HANGS IT UP IN WESTERN CANADA. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS START TO DIVERGE WITH THIS SO EXPECT THE FINAL ANSWER IS
NOT IN YET. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND FEW CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY DETERIORATED OVER THIS FORECAST AREA.
WSR-88D DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTH INTO THIS AREA.
CEILING VALUES ARE 1000 FT AGL OR LESS IN THE AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING AND FOG IS LIMITING VISIBILITY TO AT LEAST MVFR IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE RAIN. A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SPREADING RAIN AND FOG EARLY TODAY
AND FEATURE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. CLEARING
WILL BE SLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-
     JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-061645-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO LIKELY...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SDZ033>037-045-048-051-061645-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008 /1045 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-061645-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008 /1045 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOWLE