Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, June 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS UTAH WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A +100KT UPPER LEVEL JET
IS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROUGH AND EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
SET UP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE LOW NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. A DRYLINE IS LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL PROVIDE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DEEP SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND NOSE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE RICH GULF MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS AT H85
WELL INTO THE TEENS(C)...CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS
IT MARCHES EASTWARD. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
DRYLINE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THE GFS, NAM, AND UKMET ALL
POINT TO A STRONG (+100KT) UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKING NORTHEAST
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON. NAM
AND GFS MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL WIND AND SPEED
SHEAR PROFILES SO THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. PLAN TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT ALONG OUR
EASTERN FRINGE WHICH WILL ALSO FALL IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE NEEDED TODAY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME WESTERN
KANSAS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
AT H85 WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50KT NOSING THEIR WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING DOWN OF THESE WINDS TODAY WILL LEAD TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S(C)
EAST TO NEAR 20C IN THE WEST BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A
RESULT, WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN OUR EAST WITH SURFACE
HIGHS REACHING UP INTO THE 90S(F). A SURFACE LOW WILL REDEVELOP IN
EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO QUICKLY RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S(C) NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 20S(C) IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. PLAN ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES.

DAYS 3-7...

STORMY PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
WEEK.

MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RETURN ACROSS EASTERN KS. GIVEN
QUESTIONS WITH HOW QUICKLY AND FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BY
EVENING, WILL LEAVE STORM CHANCES OUT FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY, FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS THE FA AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO INTENSIFIES
ONCE AGAIN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FA. AS S/WV TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON MONDAY, DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
FRONTAL PLACEMENT ACROSS THE FA. GFS PLACES FRONT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
OF FA THAT BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE NORTH INTO NE.
ECMWF HAS FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND UPPER SYSTEM IN PLACE, WILL
KEEP MENTION OF POPS IN FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
START OF THE PERIOD. H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 30C RANGE WEST AND MID
20C EAST WILL HOLD STEADY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AT H85, BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL QUICKLY TAKE HOLD BY MID NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20C TO 30C RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS CONCERN
WITH THE WINDS. GUSTY WINDS TO 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. AS WINDS SHIFT, GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT HAYS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH
REGARDING HOW FAR AND FAST THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRYLINE WILL BE EAST OF HAYS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THE SITE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  59  86  64 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  85  52  87  59 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  82  52  88  60 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  87  57  88  62 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  88  57  85  63 /  30  30   0   0
P28  95  60  88  69 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-076>081-086>090.

&&

FN32/30/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-061000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
402 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008 /302 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AGAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
DODGE CITY.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC