Flooding in Indiana, June 5 to 17, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WAS FOUND ACRS NRN IL AND NRN INDIANA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND TRSA WERE FOUND ACRS NRN INDIANA. LIGHT SE
WINDS WERE FOUND ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT ATMOS REMAINS RATHER
HUMID AS DEW POINT TEMPS WERE GENERALLY NEAR 70. ANOTHER MCS WAS OVR
NB AND IA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WL USE A BLEND. 305K GFS
ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS SOME BROAD LIFT ACRS THE FA...BUT THE BEST LIFT
IS FOCUSED NEAR THE WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TDY SHOW H8 TEMPS
NEAR 15C-16C...AND H7 TEMPS NEAR 12C. THUS THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD CAP
AND BEST SFC CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED FARTHER NORTH...NEAR THE
FRONT. THICKNESS PROPAGATION OF THE MCS OVR NB AND IA SUGGESTS THIS
SYS COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES THE SYS SHOW BE WANING AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVR
CENTRAL INDIANA SHUD AID DISSIPATION SHUD THE SYS ARRIVE. HENCE WL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYS...BUT WL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPS...VERY WARM H8 TEMPS SUGGEST A WARM DAY...BUT WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE IN THE SOIL ACRS THE AREA...EXPECT HUMIDITY TO HELP KEEP
TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HOT. WL GENERALLY FORECAST HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES
BELOW MAVMOS...EXPECT AT IND...AS THE 87 SEEMS VERY REASONABLE.

TIME SECTIONS TONIGHT SHOW A DRY COLUMN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WL
EXTEND FROM THE SE STS TOWARD INDIANA...KEEPING SUBSIDENCE IN CHARGE
BUT NOT WITHOUT A WARM...MOIST SFC FLOW STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
GULF. HENCE WL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER WARM CAPPED DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS THE BEST FORCING WL
BE WELL TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROF. WITH
SIMILAR H8 TEMPS IN PLACE WL FORECAST HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.

CD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE MORE TSRA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HINTING AT
GOOD VV AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF. BEST
DYNAMICS WL BE ACRS THE NW PART OF THE FA...HENCE WL RAISE MAVMOS
POPS THERE AND TAPER THEM TO THE SE. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL...WL
LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN MAVMOS LOWS ON FRI NIGHT. WL USE A
MAVMOS METMOS BLEND FOR SAT HIGHS.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRES SETS UP ACRS THE SERN STATES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...ACRS THE SRN GRT LKS. HENCE WL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH AOA NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AOA 35KT
850MB WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR VFR
CIGS AS WELL. A COUPLE OF ISSUES ARRIVE AFT 09Z OR SO...FIRST IF
ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR IN THE CLOUDS THE ATMOS AND GROUND ARE MOIST
ENOUGH FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP. SECOND IS A CONCERN THAT A TSRA
COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA. ATTM BELIEVE THAT BULK OF ANY
COMPLEX WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CB MENTION FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL HELP INHIBIT ANY TSRA DEVELOPMENT ON THU SO
AFTER FOG BURNS OFF EXPECT VFR AND DRY CONDS. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFT 14Z OR SO WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CS/LJ
PUBLIC...PUMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
421 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-060830-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
421 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG MANY OF THE RIVERS
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT FOR COMPLETE
INFORMATION AND MORE DETAILS REGARDING RIVER FLOODING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.
REMEMBER THAT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A THREAT
IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.

MANY CENTRAL INDIANA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
NEEDED ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 AM     FLOOD            MUNCIE                  40.20N 85.39W
06/05/2008                   DELAWARE           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ALONG THE WHITE RIVER ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
            MUNCIE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT A NEIGHBORHOOD
            NEEDED TO BE EVACUATED.

&&

JP