Hail in South Dakota, June 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
146 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA AT THIS TIME...WITH MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS AND BEARLODGE MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING CENTRAL WYOMING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING...MODELS STILL SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND GOOD
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. HODOGRAPH FAVORS RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AFFECTING
NORTHEAST WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE BLACK
HILLS AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AS AN MCS CLEARING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE.

AFTER A QUIET MORNING TOMORROW...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO EVEN MID 60S. COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...THIS
TRANSLATES INTO A WHOLE HEAP OF INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2500
TO 3500 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWER 6 KM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE AT 45 TO 55 KT WHICH FAVORS VERY STRONG
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AS MINIMAL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WAVE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER 90S.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
PASSING OVER THE CWA...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

CALDERON/SCHILD

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