Rip Current in Florida, June 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. THIS WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE APF
TAF SITE AFTER 18Z...WHILE THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SO HAVE VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES FOR TODAY...AND VCTS FOR APF TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TODAY.

EARLY MORNING VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WAS SHOWING SOME AFRICAN DUST
OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SOME OF THIS DUST COULD
MOVE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
REDUCE VIS. HOWEVER...WILL NOT SHOW ANY REDUCTION IN VIS FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE VIS
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE CEILINGS WIL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES FOR TODAY...AND WILL ADMIN APF TAF
SITE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE STORMS DEVELOPS.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE POPS FOR TODAY WERE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. PREVIOUSLY IT WAS EXPECTED THAT MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR SOUTHEAST CUBA WOULD PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE NOW INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
PASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE WAVE PASSING WELL SOUTH. IN FACT
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DRIER AIR IN THE 700 MB TO 400 MB
LAYER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GULF...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BRINGING A MOISTURE PLUME IN THE VICINITY OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS.

WHILE THE POPS FOR TODAY WERE REDUCED...THERE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE DEEPER EASTERLY
FLOW FAVORING THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AND
IN THE VICINITY OF NAPLES...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MOISTURE
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL AHEAD AND NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS PASSING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...WITH A CHANCE OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS RECEIVING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

AFTER TODAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEAK
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...POSSIBLY LOWER AT
TIMES...OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS A REDUCTION FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  90  77 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 / 30 20 20 20
MIAMI            90  79  91  79 / 30 20 20 20
NAPLES           92  75  93  75 / 50 30 40 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
518 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-252100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
516 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, FEW STRONG NORTHWEST...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, A MEAN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF THE EASTERN
METRO AREAS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR, THE WEST COAST AND THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHERE THE SEA BREEZE AND THE PREVAILING FLOW CLASH.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES, SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOODING: THE MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS, IN TURN,
COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AND WEST COAST SECTIONS.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC, WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS,
AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.