Strong Wind in South Carolina, August 2, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PER COORDINATION WITH THE SPC...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 796 SOUTH TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL ROW
OF COUNTIES. THE WATCH NOW INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON AND BEAUFORT
METRO AREAS INCLUDING THE SC COASTAL WATERS BUT KEEPS THE WATCH
JUST NORTH OF METTER AND SAVANNAH. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OR SOME FORM OF AN EXTENSION IN TIME MAY
BE NEEDED AFTER 1 AM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH NUMBER 796 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1
AM. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW TWO CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST IS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION WHILE THE SECOND IS MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES
REACHING 3000 J/KG...DCAPES UP TO 1400 J/KG AND LI/S RUNNING AS
HIGH AS -9C. THE 00Z CHS SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP IS WEAKENING WITH
TIME AS UVM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC APPROACHES. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY LIKELY FIRING ALONG OR NEAR OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE INTERSECTIONS.
THE KCLX RADAR SHOWED A NUMBER OF THESE BOUNDARIES LURKING ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND SUNSET WITH ONE RATHER POTENT OUTFLOW MOVING
THROUGH BURKE COUNTY GEORGIA SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS INLAND AREAS
WITH THE LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS
LUDOWICI...HINESVILLE AND DARIEN. LOWS FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND
TO AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL CREATE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA SW THROUGH CHATHAM COUNTY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WAS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE NOON-7 PM PERIOD SUNDAY WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD REACH IN THE 106-112 DEGREE RANGE. FARTHER S/W...UNCERTAINLY
ABOUT MORNING CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS...WHICH MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...PRECLUDES ANY NEW HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES IN THIS PACKAGE.

MEANWHILE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. DRY/WARM MID LEVEL AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED CAP
MAY ONCE AGAIN DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION UNTIL WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE WITHIN
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE/A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP ACROSS SE
GA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BRIEF PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS INLAND AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
SEABREEZE FORCING.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. THE
PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING ALOFT...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS
EASTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT HEATING TREND
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...LEADING TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE A HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES RISE TO 107 TO 110 DEGREES.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...DRIVEN BY TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED THROUGH MID WEEK. THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS...SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO PRESS SOUTHWARD AND
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS LINGER NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. AS WEAK UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE.

MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT DESCENDING TOWARD THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BE AT OR BELOW
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AROUND THE KSAV AIRPORT DUE TO
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS IN THAT AREA THAN AT KCHS.

SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE PUSHING INTO BOTH AIRPORTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT WILL BE PINNED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO STRONG WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HAVE INTRODUCED CBS AT BOTH TAF
SITES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WE EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MVFR HAZE CONDITIONS
AND OVERNIGHT MVFR MIST AND HAZE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL PEAR BACK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THE GA NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW CRITERIA. OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 3-6 FT
LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT ANOTHER VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS...AND ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER TIME.

THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX EARLY IN THE
WEEK. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING RESUMES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE
NOCTURNAL SURGES BACK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     100-101.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ118-119.
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>051.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ043>045-
     047>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-374.
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ330-350-
     352.

&&

ST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

GAZ114>117-137>141-031030-
TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-
COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS HEAT...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST 105
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH
110 DEGREES BY MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS SPARSE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AMZ330-350-352-031030-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 796 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AMZ354-374-031030-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR
COAST GUARD BROADCASTS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

GAZ099-031030-
CANDLER-
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS HEAT...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST 105
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH
110 DEGREES BY MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS SPARSE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

GAZ118-119-031030-
INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HAZARDOUS HEAT...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST 105
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH
110 DEGREES BY MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS SPARSE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SCZ043>045-047>051-031030-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 796 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

HAZARDOUS HEAT...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST 105
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH
110 DEGREES BY MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS SPARSE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

GAZ087-088-100-101-SCZ040-042-031030-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 796 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS HEAT...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
AND SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST 105
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH
110 DEGREES BY MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS SPARSE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.