Hail in North Dakota, July 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN ND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ZONE OF WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ND NORTHEAST ND MAY BE H8-H7 FRONTAL ZONE LIFT. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SEEN MOVING THROUGH MONTANA WILL GENERATE ELEVATED CONVECTION
OVER WEST AND CENTRAL ND. A LITTLE DIFFICULT ION TIMING AS ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY BEGIN FROM AN EXTENSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED FROM
MONTANA SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. SO WILL NEED TO
BROADBRUSH POPS A LITTLE ACROSS THE STATE. ON WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER
CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
SYSTEM STILL BASICALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL AGAIN
SET UP THE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...THEN THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT. WENT SOLELY WITH THE ECMWF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
HPC CONTINUES THE IDEA OF THE GFS HAVING LITTLE MERIT WITH THE TRACK
OF AN UPPER LOW WHICH EJECTS OUT FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER/TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WHILE THE GFS HAS A PATH ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...WHICH MEANS IT IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. HENCE
FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THE
RESULT WILL BE FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS
AN INCREASED PROBABILITY IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKING CONTROL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS/VISIBLITIES BUT
ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AERODROMES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES (KISN/KMOT) ARE NOT EXCLUDED...BUT THE BETTER THREAT WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS/HAIL AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WAA/KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
541 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-161045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
541 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 /441 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THEN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV