Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR KAKO CO TO BTWN KIML AND KOGA THEN
EAST THROUGH KLXN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO TONIGHT WITH
SFC MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF FRONT AS INDICATED BY RUC13. PRESENCE
OF ACCAS AND A BIT OF CIRROCU INDICATES MID AND UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY FROM NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEBR. WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT
SHOW A FOCUSED AREA IN SWRN NEBR LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING...THE GFS
ACTUALLY DOES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE INDICATED ON THE WV IMAGERY HAS
CROSSED WRN CO INTO THE CNTRL CO MOUNTAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
INTO SRN PNHDLE BY 21Z AND SHOULD INITIATE TSTMS SOON AFTER. HAVE
AGAIN PLACED HIGHEST 30 POPS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FROM
21Z-03Z. ANOTHER AREA OF POPS NEAR 30 PERCENT WILL BE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IN NCTRL NEBR WHICH WILL BE IN VICINITY OF ANOTHER SUBTLE
BOUNDARY. TAPERED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHC JUST FOR THE NERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...DUE TO
MORE MID LEVEL WARMING. USING H7 TEMPS AT OR BELOW 13C AS A
REFERENCE FOR WHERE LONGER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY OCCUR...INDICATED
SLIGHTLY COOLER AREA NEAR SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NRN NEBR NEAR CODY
IN CHERRY COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH OSHKOSH AND BIG SPRINGS. THIS WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREA FOR SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR BOUNDARY. POPS NEAR 30
PERCENT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF KANW THROUGH KLBF.

BEST TSTM CHCS WILL FOCUS ON THUR AFTN THROUGH THUR NIGHT. MID LEVEL
COOLING CAUSED BY S/V THROUGH AND H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BELOW 12C IS
SUGGESTIVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUED PEAK OUT NEAR 1.75 TO 2 INCHES NEAR AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LG HAIL...WIND DMG AND
EVEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY AFTN AND THUR NIGHT.
POPS AT THIS JUNCTURE RANGE FROM 40 TO 54 PERCENT. LIKELY POPS COULD
HAVE BEEN ADDED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER PREFER TO WAIT DUE TO
DIFFERING SFC FRONT POSITIONS BTWN THE GFS AND NAM.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT IS SUGGESTIVE OF MAINLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR
TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COOLDOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
WILL BRING A WARMUP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER MONDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SUBTLE.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM FROM 21Z TO
03Z EAST OF THE PANHANDLE THAT COULD BRING BRIEF LOCALIZED STRONG
WINDS. OTHERWISE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 5KFT AS STORMS
MOVE ACROSS WITH LOCALIZED 1SM TSRA AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

ROBERG/KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
332 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008 /232 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BUTTE IN BOYD
COUNTY...SOUTHWEST THROUGH MULLEN IN HOOKER COUNTY...THEN FURTHER
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OGALLALA AREA IN KEITH COUNTY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONT FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

TAYLOR