Hail in North Carolina, July 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1051 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND EXITS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH (724) FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO THE COAST...AND SOUTH TO THE VA/NC
BORDER...IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR
ABOVE 14K FEET DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE HAIL AT THIS TIME. VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWING DEVELOPING CU ACROSS THESE AREAS. KAKQ RADAR
SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED CELLS POPPING UP. EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES ITS MARCH TOWARDS THE COAST.

THE OTHER MAIN WX STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. UNDER
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN MON...AND
ALONG WITH INCREASING DEW PTS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVSY FOR TIDEWATER AREA AND NE NC
FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HRS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON WED...FURTHER INCREASING PRECIP
CHCS...AND EJCTS A SIGNIFICANT S/WV OVR WV...WHICH WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVR THE AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINITY AS
TO WHETHER INCREASED CLD COVER WILL PREVENT THE ATMOS FROM
DESTABILIZING...WHICH THE NAM APPEARS TO BE HINTING AT. (1000-1500
J/KG LESS THAN THE GFS WED AFTN/EVENING.) EITHER WAY SPC HAS
CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK THRU WED...AND PER SOUNDINGS THINK SVR
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK. HV CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FOR
AN AREA ROUGHLY AROUND AND W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH THOSE
HIGHER POPS TRANSITIONING TO EAST OF THE CORRIDOR BY LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.

FRONT MVS OFFSHORE THU NIGHT...WHICH MDLS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
ON. TEMPS WED/THU (COMPARTIVELY SPEAKING) WILL BE COOLER AND
CLOSER TO MORE CLIMO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR FRI INTO ERY NXT WEEK LOOKING WARM...HUMID
AND RATHER UNSETTLED. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS IN
DIAGNOSING PCPN CHCS.

MID/UPR LVL TROF WL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR THIS PERIOD...AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE NOW APPEARS CONFIDENT IN SLOWING THIS FEATURE
DOWN AND KEEPING IT IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
FLATTER ECMWF SOLN OVER THE STRONGER AND DEEPER GFS.

AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING BNDRY (QUASI-STATIONARY REALLY) LKS TO
BECOME HUNG UP IN LGT LLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...MOVING TO THE COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DAILY CONVECTIVE CHCS...AND ACCORDINGLY STUCK WITH LOW CHC
POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD.
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UPWARD.

AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR JUST BELOW CLIMO
VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S (L90S SOUTH).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN MID LVL CLOUDS ARE KEEPING VSBYS AOA MVFR EARLY THIS AM.
AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE DVLPMT
OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG AND LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SCT TSTMS WILL REMAIN PSBL BY LATE AFTN W
OF CHES BAY...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST BY EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED TO CARRY A CB MENTION WITHOUT CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
TAFS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTS...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW PROB
OF OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD/FREQUENT SHOWERS AND TSTMS (AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS)
ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE WED THROUGH EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY...
OUTSIDE OF A MARGINAL SRLY SURGE OVER CHES BAY EARLY THIS AM
(AROUND 15 KTS). LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WED...SRLY
GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES FROM THE W.
CONSENSUS AMONG THE GFS AND NAM WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WED AFTN AND WED NIGHT (36-48 HRS)...AND
AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED FLAGS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY (NEAR 100 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS)...BUT SHOULDNT REACH RECORD HIGHS (SEE BELOW):

RIC...103 DEGREES IN 1952
ORF...100 DEGREES IN 1952
SBY...104 DEGREES IN 1930
ECG...103 DEGREES IN 1952

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ013>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ092-093-
     095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ630>633.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...JRL/SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...BKH
MARINE...BKH
CLIMATE...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

VAZ064-072>077-221545-
CAROLINE VA-ESSEX VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-NORTHUMBERLAND
VA-RICHMOND VA-WESTMORELAND VA-
1027 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN NECK AND MIDDLE PENINSULA...

AT 1027 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20 MILES WEST OF COLONIAL BEACH TO
13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN...OR FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
STAFFORD TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT STEPHENS CHURCH...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHAMPLAIN AROUND 1050 AM EDT...
  TAPPAHANNOCK AROUND 1100 AM EDT...
  MONTROSS AROUND 1110 AM EDT...
  WARSAW AROUND 1115 AM EDT...
  ROBLEY AROUND 1130 AM EDT...
  CALLAO AROUND 1135 AM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO
A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS.

LEWITSKY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1043 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

VAZ067-068-080-221545-
AMELIA VA-DINWIDDIE VA-NOTTOWAY VA-
1043 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT...

AT 1043 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CREWE...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR PATTERSONS STORE AT 1050 AM EDT...NORTH
WELLVILLE AT 1055 AM EDT...WILSONS AT 1100 AM EDT...HEBRON AT 1105 AM
EDT...FORD AT 1115 AM EDT...ROCKY RUN AT 1120 AM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LEWITSKY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1119 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MDZ021>023-221630-
DORCHESTER MD-SOMERSET MD-WICOMICO MD-
1119 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY
INTO THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...

AT 1119 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 19 MILES WEST OF CAMBRIDGE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHESAPEAKE BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR HUDSON AT 1125 AM EDT...LLOYDS AT 1130 AM
EDT...CHURCH CREEK AT 1135 AM EDT...CAMBRIDGE AT 1140 AM EDT...
LINKWOOD AT 1145 AM EDT...EAST NEW MARKET AT 1150 AM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR OUR ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

LEWITSKY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1201 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MDZ021>025-VAZ099-221700-
ACCOMACK VA-DORCHESTER MD-INLAND WORCESTER MD-MARYLAND BEACHES
MD-SOMERSET MD-WICOMICO MD-
1201 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE...

AT 1201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF FRUITLAND TO 28 MILES
WEST OF CRISFIELD...OR FROM CAMBRIDGE TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LEXINGTON PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR FRUITLAND AROUND 100 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LEWITSKY

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