Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, July 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 12 HRS. SOME PATCHY FOG OR HAZE EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SEE GRADUAL INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO
CENTRAL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTH OVER MO TO NORTHERN AR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE
AREA...COMBINING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. TIMING APPEARS TO BE AROUND
NOON TO AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...LATER AFTERNOON TO EVENING CENTRAL.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED PROB30 FOR
NORTHERN TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO TO TEMPO GROUP WITH LATER
FORECASTS. VCTS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAFS UNTIL DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN. WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTH ARKANSAS.
THESE CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. A COLD FRONT HAS
DROPPED INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS DEVELOPED
IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING
WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND PROGRESSED THEM SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE 100 TO
104 DEGREE RANGE. THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SOME RELIEF. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

BY THURSDAY...ARKANSAS COULD HAVE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AS A RESULT
OF HURRICANE DOLLY IN SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AGAIN
TODAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE HOT AND DRY PERIOD HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH CHANCES OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION EACH DAY...AND TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. THE UPPER
RIDGE HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE U.S...WHILE A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH HOLDS IN OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO ARKANSAS...WILL BEING
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT TIMES TO THE AREA. FINE TUNING THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION HAS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
MAINTAINED TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION CHANCES. SLIGHT CHANCE POP IS IN
FOR EACH DAY...BUT COULD HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE CAT JUST AS EASILY.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL FORECASTS TO FINE TUNE PERCENT...
WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  70  91  69 /  30  30  30  30
CAMDEN AR         99  73  95  72 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       94  70  91  68 /  30  30  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  73  94  72 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR 100  73  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     99  74  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR     100  72  94  71 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  70  90  68 /  30  30  30  30
NEWPORT AR        97  71  92  69 /  30  30  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR    100  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         98  72  92  70 /  20  30  30  30
STUTTGART AR     100  73  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ARKANSAS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH...AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS
CLOSER TO THE AREA. ALSO AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS...WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE
GREATEST THREAT.

AGAIN TODAY...HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS. HEAT INDICES FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THESE HEAT INDICES FALL JUST
SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS STILL DANGEROUS TO OVER
EXERT YOURSELF DURING THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE DAY. REMEMBER TO
STAY HYDRATED AND REDUCE STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE HOTTEST
TIME OF THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.AS THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY. THEY WILL MAINLY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS. ISOLATED STORMS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY...AND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENINGS.

DUE TO THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDS...HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT STILL BE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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