Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
336 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DECENT COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND THE EAST COAST. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO NEXT WEEK...BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA REMAINS CONVECTION FREE ATTM IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
OUTFLOW/PASSING MCS AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY GIVEN DELAY IN
INSOLATION. WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO RIDE UNDER THE UPPER TROF
THIS EVENING AND INTO WV BY MIDNIGHT. MODELS JUMP ON THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AS THE LEAD OUTFLOW AND IGNITE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NW THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. STILL IFFY AS TO COVERAGE
WITH THIS S/W AND HOW FAR EAST ANY SHRA MIGHT MAKE IT. THUS ONLY
BOOSTING POPS SLIGHTLY TO LOW LIKELYS NW AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS
ELSW THIS EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHRA LOOKS TO BE MORE ALIGNED
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW A DECREASE IN POPS OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE
LOW TEMP FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY START TO PIVOT SE WED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SLIDING EAST POSSIBLY REACHING THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER MODEL TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND BAND OF PREFRONTAL DEEP RH
IN QUESTION BUT CRITICAL TO THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SLOWER MORE UNSTABLE GFS/CANADIAN
SOLNS BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION. GIVEN MORE
HEATING...FORECAST ROABS SHOW INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE ESPCLY EAST
WHERE EXPECT MORE HEATING. OTRW WILL KEEP GOING LIKELY/CAT POPS
OVER THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN EDGE HIGHER POPS EAST
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EVENING. SLOW MOVEMENT PER
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IF MULTICELL
TSRA CLUSTERS DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY PENDING TIMING OF
CLOUDS/SHRA SO PLAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MOS WITH 70S/LOW 80S
FAR WEST...AND 85-90 EAST FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY COULD FEATURE STRNG TO SVR STORMS WITH ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE RESEMBLES
MORE OF A SPRING/FALL EVENT AS OPPOSED TO A SUMMERTIME EVENT.
SHWS/TSTMS SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE SHOWING ITS BIAS BEING
TOO DEEP AND STRONG WITH VORT MAXES...PLUNGING THE MAIN WAVE MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT ADDITIONAL
SHWS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT...BUT AIR IS LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
TO OCCUR. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT THURS AFTERNOON...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS NIGHT...MIN T COULD FALL TO OR BELOW
GUIDANCE MOST SPOTS. ALTHOUGH FRONT IS STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT MAY STALL OUT JUST CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SHWS OR STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE EXTREME SE CWA THURS...BUT A BETTER CHC ON FRIDAY
WITH INSTABILITY AND H7 MOISTURE BUILDING BACK NORTH FOR THE SAME
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS LIKELY IS OVERDONE WITH COVERAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY DISPLACING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AT LEAST FROM THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THIS OCCURS...SHWS/TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT THIS
WEEKEND. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY
FIRST...WITH POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY
WHEN THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. ALTHOUGH MANY COLD FRONTS HAVE
PERISHED BEFORE CLEARING THE NC/VA BORDER...IF SOME OF THE LR
MODELS VERIFY IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PASS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A NICE STRING OF NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS...AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SINKING MOTION BEHIND EARLIER MCS CONTINUES TO SLOW CU AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH HEATING
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA ESPCLY OVER THE WEST IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT WEAK IMPULSE ADVECTING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. BUFKIT
SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 20Z BUT THEN
LINGER SE WVA INTO TONIGHT. THUS WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING OF TSRA
ONSET AND INCLUDE VICINITY MENTION MOST SPOTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THRU 00Z. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG ALSO POSSIBLE ESPCLY VALLEYS WHERE
EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. OTRW MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE
SHRA. COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NW WED WITH ONGOING SHRA/TSRA
BAND OR QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY TAKING PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY INCLUDE SOME PREVAILING VSBY REDUCTION IN
SE WVA IN THE MORNING OTRW RUNNING WITH CB MENTION BY MIDDAY FAR
WEST.

CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ON THU UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SAT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>017-WVZ042>045-232030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

NCZ004>006-VAZ018>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-232030-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.