Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BUT
WILL BE PUSHED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES ARE DEPICTED
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTN...AND THE BEST
ENERGY SHOULD BRUSH THE NRN TIER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND THIS COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE NC BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE BEST SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD RUN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND WHERE FREEZING
LEVELS ARE DOWN TO NEAR 12 KFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE HAIL
WITH ANY 50 TO 55 DBZ CORE HEIGHTS REACHING 24 KFT ACROSS THE NRN
TIER. SRN TIER STORMS WOULD LIKELY NEED CORES IN THE LOWER 30 KFT
FEET RANGE.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE INSTABILITY
DESPITE CONTINUED WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND OVER THE NC PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL H5 SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. NORHTWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW SHOULD
CREATE MORE CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE TROUGH OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT FOR
FRIDAY AFTN AS WELL. 850 MB TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FRIDAY AFTN OVER TODAY TO YIELD WARMER MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE AXIS OF
A H5 L/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS IS FAIRLY LOW. IN ADDITION...AN INVERSION
BETWEEN H5-H6 MAY KEEP THE SFC BASED PARCELS CAPPED. HOWEVER...THE
PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF MAY RESULT IN A ELONGATED LEE TROF
ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 SAT AFTERNOON. I WILL PAINT THE REGION EAST
OF THE MTNS WITH A AFTERNOON SCHC OF SHRA AND TSRA. USING A BLEND OF
MOS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S IN THE MTN VALLEYS TO
U80S EAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
RESULTING IN DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE PW DROPPING TO .8 INCHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG MID
LEVEL INVERSION. I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL SLOW
DRIFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
FEATURE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE AND
HPC VALUES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THE PERIOD OF 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE DAY FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE RATHER TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME.
AGAIN...THE HPC PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ECMWF. AS FOR THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND GMOS WERE USED TO
ACHIEVE A DECENT ENOUGH BLEND TO MATCH THE OVERALL PICTURE OF THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DAYTIME MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FRIDAYS
FORECAST WAS DIFFICULT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE IMPACT OF THIS STORM ON THE CWA IS STILL VERY UNCLEAR...BUT
SHOULD PROVE TO BE AN INTERESTING FEATURE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT NO IMMEDIATE THREATS
TO TAF LOCATIONS ARE INDICATED. CONVECTION NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR WILL COME CLOSEST TO KHKY...WHERE A VCTS WILL BE CARRIED
INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
AFT 06Z...WHEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
SCATTERING MID CLOUDS TO PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH
LIFR VSBY DEVELOPING IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY 15Z FRI. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEE TROUGHING
SHOULD SET UP IN THE PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY TO KEEP FLOW SOUTH OF WEST
THROUGHOUT FROM KAND TO KCLT.

OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ISOLATED LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMS
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
616 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

NCZ035-501-502-141830-
ALEXANDER-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
152 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL AND WESTERN
ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF GLOBE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PATTERSON BY 205 PM EDT.
  KINGS CREEK BY 230 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HG