Tornado and Lightning Strike in Florida, August 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

.UPDATE...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
SEABREEZE TRYING HARD TO PUSH INLAND ESPECIALLY NEAR KMIA.
RW AND TSTMS FORMING IN LINES OR BANDS WITH MOST ACTIVITY AROUND
THE LAKE AS EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE PLACED TEMPOS FOR RWS OR TSTMS
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS UNTIL 21Z. FOR KAPF, DUE TO ACTIVITY
FURTHER OUT IN THE GULF, PLACED A TEMPO FOR TSRA 20-23Z. MAX GUSTS
IN STORMS AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008/

UPDATE...
THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH TO ADD TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...WITH EVERYTHING APPEARING TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE EFFECTS OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LESS. MINOR
UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURE/WIND/CLOUD COVER...AND UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

70/DD

AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS TODAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS BUT HIGHER CHANCES NORTHERN SECTIONS
(KPBI AND KAPF) WITH ANY OUTFLOWS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE
TERMINALS ARE POSSIBLE. WENT WITH ONLY VCTS AFT 18Z EAST COAST
TERMINALS FOR NOW AND STARTING EARLIER AROUND 14Z FOR KAPF. MOST
CONVECTION ENDING ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
TAIL END OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS COAST IS TRAILING SW ACROSS CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FL...WITH A FEW POPPING UP ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH WARMEST TEMPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FL SHOULD MOVE SOUTH ONLY A LITTLE BIT
TODAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP WSW FLOW CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTH FL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PWAT
GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA. WILL TAYLOR POP CHANCES TO
MATCH UP WITH THIS GRADIENT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. EVEN THIS MAY BE A STRETCH GIVEN MODEST
WSW FLOW MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND LIMITING SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IF ANY OCCURS...AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-
LEVEL FLOW COULD APPROACH 25 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS NEAR
THE TROUGH...AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE 00Z TAMPA
SOUNDING. SO...SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. A SHOWER OR STORM MAY ROLL ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NAPLES AREA AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN METRO AREAS. THINK THAT MOST CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS NEAR THE TROUGH...AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SO MADE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT A
LINGERING WEAKNESS FROM THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SFC UP
THROUGH 500MB...AND MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BY
SUMMER STANDARDS. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES AS
THEY MOVE INLAND...WITH MOTION MOSTLY DUE TO OUTFLOW PROPAGATION.

FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
AND DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BRINGS A WAVE OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...BUT THE SITUATION NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SYSTEMS OF TROPICAL
ORIGIN. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THIS TIME FRAME BECAUSE OF
THIS.

MARINE...
WINDS COULD LINGER AROUND 10 KTS TODAY BEFORE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING FAIRLY
LIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 4 FT.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  91  75  90 / 20 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  77  89 / 20 30 20 40
MIAMI            78  92  77  90 / 20 30 20 40
NAPLES           78  90  76  90 / 30 40 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
350 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-150200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
350 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
COLLIER, GLADES, HENDRY, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.

WIND: THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS
CONTAINING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SHOULD THE STORMS ORGANIZE
SUFFICIENTLY, THEY COULD MOVE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND INTO
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL. MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR SCATTERED FAST MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
THE PALM BEACH COAST.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH
LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING THE PRIMARY RISK FROM THE STORMS.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON THIS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND GST     20 NE LAKEPORT          27.18N 80.90W
08/14/2008  M59 MPH          OKEECHOBEE         FL   MESONET

&&

RADER