Damaging Winds in Texas, August 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...
ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION OR MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH CHANCE AND THEN TAPER
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.  ALSO APPEARS THAT HEAVY
RAIN COULD BE LIKELY AS 12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE FROM
JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO AROUND 20 KFT.  SHEAR PROFILE APPEARS MARGINAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE SO WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE ISOLATED REPORTS OF
BARELY SEVERE HAIL WITH A FEW HIGH WIND GUSTS EARLY ON BEFORE STORMS
START TO GUST OUT.  ALSO ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE GRIDS AS AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR ISOLATED 1
TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

NEXT ISSUE IS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
PANHANDLE SOMETIME TOMORROW MIGHT GET MASKED BY OUTFLOW BY STORMS
TONIGHT.  NAM12 APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK INDICATED BY SFC WINDS IN THE MODEL REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTH TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS BRIEFLY
RETURNS FLOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SRN TX PNHDL TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY.  IF CONVECTION TONIGHT IS AS STRONG AS THE MODELS SHOW...WE
PROBABLY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH.  SHOULD THE GFS
VERIFY...TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA MIGHT BE TOO COOL OVERALL.  TO
COMPLICATE THE MIX...LATER TIMING OF THE S/W THIS EVENING MIGHT
ALLOW SHOWERS AND/OR CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY ALSO
HINDERING A WARMUP.  DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TOWARDS THE NUMBERS THE
MAV AND FWC WERE GIVING AS THE MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO COOL.
JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINES WITH
A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO...AND EVENTUALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF 850 MB FRONT...WITH CELLS/SYSTEMS PROPAGATING SE INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN FROM
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. UPPED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY CATEGORIES.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW...WHICH WILL MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER IN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK
CLOSE TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  85  61  76  61 /  50  30  60  50  40
TULIA         62  84  62  76  62 /  50  30  60  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  86  62  77  62 /  40  20  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     64  90  62  80  62 /  30  20  60  50  50
LUBBOCK       64  87  64  80  63 /  30  20  60  50  50
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  82  63 /  30  30  50  40  50
BROWNFIELD    67  90  64  82  63 /  30  20  50  50  50
CHILDRESS     68  86  67  81  62 /  40  30  60  50  40
SPUR          67  89  65  82  64 /  30  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     69  91  69  84  68 /  30  20  50  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

TXZ021>044-160000-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
652 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL
COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES
SOMEWHAT IN ITS WAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACH THE SOUTH
PLAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
707 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

TXZ021-022-150030-
PARMER TX-CASTRO TX-
707 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CASTRO AND
PARMER COUNTIES...

AT 706 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING PARMER AND CASTRO
COUNTIES....MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT
SUMMERFIELD AND FRIONA BY 730 PM. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY
EVOLVE.

MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. PERSONS
IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER RADIO OR
OTHER MEDIA FOR OTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.