High Wind in New Mexico, June 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
844 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

.UPDATE...
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING BROADLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO...AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS OVER LAST FEW HOURS...AND WILL
EXPIRE WIND ADVISORY ON SCHEDULE AT 9 PM MDT FOR THESE ZONES. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MODEST DECREASE IN SPEEDS OVERNIGHT QUICKLY OFFSET BY ANOTHER
WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SACRAMENTOS
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...EXPECTING RED FLAGS TO COME DOWN ON SCHEDULE
THIS EVENING AT 10 PM MDT...WITH WARNING FOR THURSDAY FROM RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO TEXAS LINE AND INCLUDING NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS CONTINUING.

WIND STATEMENTS OUT SHORTLY...FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS OUT BY 10 PM
MDT...AND UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE SHORTLY AFTER STATEMENT ISSUANCE.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT ALOFT SHOULD
TIGHTEN AS A 60KT 500MB JET NOSES INTO THE WRN SECTIONS OF NM. THIS
JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN TO 75 OR 80 KTS
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN PLAYING HAVOC WITH MIXING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER
WILL ACT AS A BLANKET TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
CHECK AND PREVENT MANY AREAS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE
WINDS IN THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY ALONG RIDGETOPS AS WELL AS ALONG/
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ERN SLOPES. TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...WILL EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCLUDING NMZ004-008-
009. IN ADDITION...WILL UPGRADE NMZ017...THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTS
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA ALL NIGHT
AT ALL HOURS...BUT RIDGETOPS WILL BE HOWLING COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPR
LEVEL WINDS ON OCCASION.

PRECIPITATION WILL MIGRATE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDNIGHT
AND SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. INCREASED POPS ALONG/NORTH OF I-
40 WITH LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE SAN JUAN MTS. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO
HEAR OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 9500 FEET TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO SIG
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE STATE TOMORROW...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY WANING FROM W TO E BY THE
AFTERNOON. LINGERING PCPN WILL DEPART THE NE BY EARLY THU EVENING. A
COOLER REGIME COMPLIMENTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW ZONES. DROPPED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY AND
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER. TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FRIDAY...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH WARMER READINGS.

GFS40 STILL HOLDING ON TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
HOWEVER ECMWF STILL PERSISTENT WITH SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS. INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST HAVE LOW GRADE POPS AND WILL
NOT ADJUST AT THIS TIME. DPORTER

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH SUSTAINED READINGS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THEN THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND
AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND JUST TO THE LEE OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...CIGS WILL FALL
AND LOOK FOR SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS HAD SOME AFFECT ON THE MIXING. HOWEVER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA AS THE STRONG WIND MAX ALOFT NUDGES OVER THE STATE.
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL ALSO REMAIN RATHER LOW AFTER VERY POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND MOISTURE SPILLS
IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION SOUTH AND EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUCH AS SOCORRO COUNTY AND THE CHUPADERA MESA. WILL
UPGRADE THE WATCH ON THURSDAY TO A WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA AND THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE
DROPPING THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR OF ZONE 103. FEEL THAT 1 TO 2
HOURS COULD OCCUR THERE...ABQ AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN AUGUSTIN
PLAIN. THE OTHER FIRE WEATHER STORY WILL BE LOWERING TEMPERATURES
AND RISING HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH PAINTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
THIRD...FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY SO SOME
WETTING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EVEN SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FAVORING THE COLORADO BORDER AREA.

MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LESSENING WIND AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESPOND BY LOWERING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH A BREEZY
TO WINDY PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY LINE NUDGING CLOSE TO
NEW MEXICO BORDER. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY LINE SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR WEST IT
COULD GET. AS OF RIGHT NOW GOING WITH A DRY SCENARIO AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE MAIN BREAK DOWN STAGE
FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS BEING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-106>108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ005>007-010>016-018>021-026.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ017.

&&

SHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

NMZ001>021-026-051200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
341 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE...A
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE
WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NON PRECIPITATION WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO THE
TEXAS BORDER AND AREAS BOUNDED FROM SANTA ROSA TO CLAYTON AND CLOVIS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DPORTER