High Wind in New Mexico, December 8, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEGINNING TO SEE THIS TREND AT KCNM AND KHOB
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY A
FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KCNM...KHOB...AND KINK THIS
AFTERNOON AND WENT AHEAD AND TEMPO/D THAT IN. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRONG WINDS...ALSO PUT VARIABLE WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...BUT COULD STILL BE
PROBLEMATIC GIVEN EVERYTHING ELSE.

IN ADDITION...WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA...COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENTS TOMORROW MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH COLDEST TEMPS STILL HELD UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS...PUT IN A PROB30 FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THOSE LOCATIONS. FOR NOW...ONLY PUT IN -SHRA AT
KINK...KMAF...AND KPEQ AS BEST GUESS IS THAT THESE LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN...BUT FOR NOW THINK THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR
RANGE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR AND AVIATION ISSUES. /13/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/

UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO REFLECT POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ALL
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT OUT. /13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THIS WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED ON WINDS
TODAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

THE EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SMALL...BUT STRONG
UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO WEST TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES...THE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN. HIGH WINDS CONTINUE TO
LOOK FAVORED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ON THE GUADALUPE...DELAWARE
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. NAM12 CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE
WITH ROBUST 700MB WIND SPEEDS IN THE 40-50KT RANGE FROM THE
GUADALUPES SOUTH INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THE STRONG WINDS AT
700MB WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
CULBERSON COUNTY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AT THE BOWL RAWS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO NEAR 50
MPH...WE WILL START THE WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AT
08/12Z AND CONTINUE THE WARNING UNTIL 09/15Z. THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR CULBERSON COUNTY WILL RUN FROM 08/15Z-09/15Z WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN BEING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE
DELAWARE AND SIERRA DIABLO MOUNTAINS. FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...THE WARNING WILL START ON 08/15Z AND RUN THROUGH
09/18Z. THIS AREA WILL BE LAST TO SEE THE DECREASE IN 700MB
WINDS...THUS THE LONGER DURATION WARNING. ELSEWHERE TODAY...NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A VERY
WINDY TO WINDY DAY ON TAP. WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF A HOBBS TO WINK
TO FORT STOCKTON LINE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
(SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-39 MPH). WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MENTIONED AREA FROM 08/15Z-09/00Z.
OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH WEAK LIFT MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF A MARFA TO
LAMESA LINE. WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS HERE...BUT
HAVE REMOVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS. THE ONE AREA
THAT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WILL BE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL INDICATE
COOLING AT 850MB BY 00Z.

MUCH COOLER AND CONTINUED WINDY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WITH READINGS EITHER STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK A LITTLE BETTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS NOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY/S MODEL DATA
SUGGESTED. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TARGETING AN AREA ALONG
AND NORTH/WEST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE LATEST AGREEMENT IN
MODEL DATA...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR MOST OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT...HOWEVER WE DO EXPECT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTH INTO THE GUADALUPES. AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN THE MENTIONED REGION ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
WE DO EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SURFACE COLD
AIR ADVECTION. AT THIS TIME ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN
LIGHT. WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES FOR
MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH A TRANSITION
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY AS A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INITIALLY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE PASSES. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN 12Z
TAFS. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THESE AREAS
HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. MAIN
CONCERN WITH GOING FORECAST WILL BE  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW AMPLE MIXING BY
LATE MORNING.  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30KTS WITH GUESTS EXCEEDING 40 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. WEAKER WINDS ARE LIKELY FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
20 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN A
QUICK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT.

FIRE WEATHER...
POSSIBLE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF A
HOBBS TO FORT STOCKTON TO SANDERSON LINE AS STRONG WINDS COMBINE
WITH MARGINAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF LOW DEWPOINT AIR AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WRF12 SOUNDING CENTERED AT KMRF INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES THROUGH NEARLY H65 WHILE ENHANCED H70 FLOW OF NEARLY 50 KTS
SUGGESTS HIGH MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SPC SHEF RUNS INDICATE LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE
FOR RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 10% THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ALOFT AS NOTED ON MOST RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES FOR NOW. THROUGH ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY REACH NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...FEEL OCCURRENCE WILL BE SPORADIC ENOUGH TO FOR
GO ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...NORTHERN
     LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...WARD...WINKLER.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
827 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-091430-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
827 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008 /727 AM MST MON DEC 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BREWSTER
COUNTY...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF CULBERSON
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU...HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHERN
BREWSTER COUNTY...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DIFFICULTY DRIVING...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...WILL BE MAGNIFIED IN GUADALUPE PASS AS STRONG WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LOW LEVELS
QUICKLY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...
UPPER TRANS PECOS...MARFA PLATEAU...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO PLAINS. HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS OF NORTHERN BREWSTER
COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF CULBERSON COUNTY WILL ALSO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO A RAIN SNOW MIX THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACROSS
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 4500 FEET IN THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW...WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND