Strong Wind in New Jersey, December 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1107 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST CHRISTMAS DAY AND
NIGHT...THEN RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL CROSS THE TRI-STATE SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. STEADIES RAIN DIRECTLY AHEAD OF FRONT WITH LLJ AND
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE CITY TO JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK EAST. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS LINGER A BIT POST- FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN EVERYONE STARTS TO DRY OUT WITH THE COLDER
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW THEREAFTER. EXPECT THE LAST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EASTERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK ON CHRISTMAS
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT AS A WARM PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A BRIEF TEMPERATURE RUN UP TO NEAR
50 DEGREES ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. THEN...WE WILL START TO TURN
COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS A 60 KT 950 HPA JET CROSSES THE REGION. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
IS KEEPING STRONGER WINDS FROM BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND BURST OF
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES EXPERIENCED...THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT DOWN AT
LEAST 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF THE 45 TO 55 KT JET THAT REMAINS. SO
EXPECTING A BRIEF PERIOD (1 TO 2 HRS) OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH WINDS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TO
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING FROM W TO E ACROSS THE NY/NJ METRO AND
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED EASTERN SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK ON
CHRISTMAS. THAT WILL KEEP THE HOLIDAY DRY...AND MAKE THE MAIN
STORY THE WINDS. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE THEN WEAKENS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...MOST LIKELY BY LATE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY JUST FOR COASTAL NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF 45 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING
ALOFT...KEEPING THINGS DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN...THE NEXT WAVE
IN THE FAST MOVING PATTERN APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE
WE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE ONSET TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALSO APPEAR
TO RULE OUT SNOW...WITH SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MORE LIKELY AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH ACROSS MIDWEST WITH
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING ON SAT...WITH THE TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDING
EAST TOWARDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CHANCE FOR LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DEGREE OF COLD AIR DAMMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE N & NW SUBURBS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND RELATIVELY WEAK E TO SE LOW LEVEL
WINDS. WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME PUSHING THROUGH TILL LATE IN
THE DAY SATURDAY WHEN LLJ APPROACHES. LEANING TOWARDS RAIN COAST AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NW ZONES TO START SAT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL
RAIN.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MAKE IT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHC POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
BREEZY CONDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

WEAK CAA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT ON GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPS CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN KEEPS MONDAY DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE.
A POLAR FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUES NIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE WED. TEMPS FALLING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS TO END PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS
OF 00Z. LIFR AT KHPN SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS
WINDS INCREASE. ONE BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NYC
TERMINALS WITH A BRIEF BREAK...THEN ANOTHER BATCH MOVES THROUGH
AFTER 02Z. FRONT IS STILL WAY BACK...JUST WEST OF KPIT SO EXPECT
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH 07Z (09Z EASTERN TERMINALS) WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS.

S-SW WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO INCREASE (17KT AS KJFK THIS HOUR)
AND SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z
AND 06Z...HIGHEST AT KJFK/KISP/KGON/KLGA. WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z WITH RAPID
CLEARING (VFR) BEHIND IT. QUICK SHOT OF CAA POST FRONTAL WITH
GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE CHRISTMAS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS AT NYC TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY (21Z-ISH).

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH MON...
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COMES FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM...MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP
FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AT KHPN/KSWF. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE
SUN...AND CONTINUE INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT SHIFT TO
THE WEST LATE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER ALL BUT NY HARBOR TONIGHT AS A VIGOROUS 70 KT 950 MB JET
CROSSES THE WATERS (CENTERED OVER EASTERN WATERS). BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON (LESS
THAN 3 HRS OVER THE HARBOR)...THEN WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE A GALE WARNING UP THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY OVER
ALL WATERS BUT NY HARBOR WHERE HAVE AN SCA OVER THE SAME TIME
FRAME.

SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT OVERNIGHT ON THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS 5 TO 11 FT OVER THE WESTERN TWO ZONES...AND TO 3 TO 5
FT ON THE PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAY AND WESTERN SOUND AND 4 TO 7 FT
ON THE EASTERN SOUND. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS WINDS SUBSIDE WITH ONLY THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES REMAINING ABOVE
SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
ALL WATERS HAVING SUB SCA SEAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY.

SCA CONDS ACROSS ALL WATERS LOOKS LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MARGINAL GALES POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON OCEAN SAT NIGHT
THUR SUN AFT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. SEAS BUILDING IN EXCESS OF
10 FT IN RESPONSE ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE ON THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MON WITH TIGHT W/SW GRADIENT CONTINUING AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT FOR TUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1 TO 2 TENTHS
OF AN INCH. IN ADDITION...SNOW MELT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL ADD
TO THE RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE TOTAL RUNOFF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RIVER OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE STORM
SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>011.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>078-080.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-345-
     350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ338.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1106 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

CTZ012-NYZ079-081-260415-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1106 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>008-NJZ002>005-011-NYZ067>070-260415-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1106 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ009>011-NJZ006-NYZ071>078-080-260415-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-HUDSON-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
1106 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355-260415-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1106 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ338-260415-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
1106 PM EST WED DEC 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.