Hail in Nebraska, June 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING SET UP TODAY WITH 987 MB SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF
HILL CITY KANSAS. STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z KTOP SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP WITH
+15 C AIR AT 700 MB.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH AT KOAX...ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE WORKED OVER WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT NOT
NEARLY AS PROMINENT. STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED ON
BOTH SOUNDINGS. SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS NEBRASKA
BEGINNING TO WORK OFF TO THE NORTH.  MAIN WARM FRONT IS SITUATED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...WHILE  A SECONDARY
WARM FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE LAST HOUR...WHICH IS
NOT CAPTURED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL. EFFECTS FROM THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
TODAY.

HAVE GONE WITH THE IDEA THAT WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM KYKN-KSPW.  EXPECT THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH STORMS REMAINING ELEVATED TO THE NORTH. EXPECT
GREATEST THREAT TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE SKIES HAVE
PARTIALLY CLEARED OUT ALLOWING ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE. AS LONG AS
ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY THAT STORMS WILL NOT
BE SHEARED APART...SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT CONGEAL
WITH TIME INTO A SQUALLINE. WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COULD SEE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ELEVATED DRY PUNCH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 0-6 KM WINDS INDICATE STORM MOTION WOULD BE AROUND
190 AT 48 KNOTS...WHILE RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WOULD MOVE AROUND
200 AT 45 KNOTS.

WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS AND 3/HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VARYING FROM 0.6 TO 3.0 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ELECTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18Z TO 06Z TONIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS NORTH OF THE FRONT...MODIFIED SKY AND WIND GRIDS.
GRIDS POSTED...TEXT PRODUCTS ON THE WAY. /BT

&&
.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER THIS MORNING. A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STROMS
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES BEFORE EVOLING INTO A DAMAGING WIND EVENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

WARM ADVECTION SHRA/TSRA FELL APART IN MOST OF CWA OVERNGT AS NEB/IA
CONVECTION TOOK OVER CLOSER TO WMFNT. SO CUT BACK COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS MRNG AND HAVE CANCELLED ALL WATCHES. COULD REGENERATE
DURG MRNG...MAINLY NORTH OF I90 AND EAST OF I29...BUT STILL ONLY
SCATTERED EXPCD. HOWEVER...DANGEROUS SITUATION STILL DVLPG LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE AS MAIN DYNAMICS FINALLY MOVE NEWD INTO CWA AND
INTERACT WITH SFC WMFNT SURGING NWD THRU SERN CWA. THIS FNT WILL BE
FLWD BY STG SSELY FLOW OF MUCH WARMER AND VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...FUELING STG TSTM DVLPMT EVEN N AND W OF FNT OVER MOST OF CWA
DUE TO STG DYNAMICS ALOFT. MAIN THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
SHOULD BE ALG AND SE OF A LN FM MWM TO FSD TO YKN...BUT SURGING
WMFNT COULD BRING MAIN ACTION EVEN FURTHER N AND W BY EARLY EVE.
HEAVY RAIN WILL REDVLP WITH DVLPG MCSS MOVG EWD OVER CWA DURG
EVE...AND DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO PONDER ANOTHER FFA DEPENDING ON
WHERE IT COULD SET UP. WRAPAROUND SCT SHRA MOVG EWD OVER MAINLY NRN
CWA LATE TNGT THRU FRI MRNG...WITH BRISK SWLY FLOW OF MILDER AND
DRIER AIR EXPCD BY AFTN. PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO ON FCST THEREAFTER
WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. SEEMS SLY FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME LOW
LVL MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE CHCS OF TSTMS DVLPG SE OVER CWA LATE FRI
NGT THRU SAT NGT....BUT NEXT MAIN PRECIP EVENT SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL
SUN NGT AND BEYOND.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
     089-090-097-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SDZ038>040-050-
     052>071.
&&

RSR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1132 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-061200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1132 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN THREATS FOR THESE
STORMS WILL STRONG DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA TO SPENCER
IOWA LINE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COMBINE INTO A SQUALLINE
PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

FLOODING...
THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER FROM AROUND SPENCER TO LINN GROVE IS
EXPECTED TO CREST AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE
THIS WEEK.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
VERMILLION RIVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. RAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH COULD BE CAUSE FOR
CONTINUED OR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CAUSE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL. THIS
COULD CREATE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS
INCREASE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON CREEKS...STREAMS
AND RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A BROOKINGS TO YANKTON
LINE WITH GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND STRONG
TORNADOES ALL THREATS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE... GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. ELEVATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIALLY
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA AND NEARBY AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1158 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TRIPP                   43.22N 97.97W
06/05/2008                   HUTCHINSON         SD   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER THE CURB IN TRIPP

&&

LIEBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1210 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     HAIL             SW EMERY                43.60N 97.62W
06/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       HANSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LIEBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1214 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             8 SW EMERY              43.52N 97.73W
06/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       HANSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LIEBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     HAIL             2 NNW SALIX             42.34N 96.30W
06/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       WOODBURY           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LIEBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             1 NW VERMILLION         42.79N 96.94W
06/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL TO SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL

&&

LIEBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1247 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   43.72N 97.39W
06/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       MCCOOK             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LIEBL