Flood in Maryland, March 6 to 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TRAVEL NORTHEAST
PASSING ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL
TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. SATELLITE PICS SHOW SOME CI OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WHILE IT MAY MOVE AWAY BY SUNRISE, THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE SOME MORE LATER. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD SUFFICE FOR TODAY.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST AREAS.
COOLER OF COURSE AT KMPO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THEY WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO E OR SE BY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER FROM THE NEAR TERM WILL EXTEND TO THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
FRIDAY MORNING. I REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM THE FCST FOR
FRI MORNING BUT THEN BUMPED THE AFTERNOON POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS AGREEING THAT THE MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL HOLD OFF IN OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. SINCE THE PRECIP
WILL ARRIVE LATER THE THREAT FOR ANY MIX IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
SEEMS TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS, SO IT WAS REMOVED FROM THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL IN ABUNDANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS HAVE THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PA (GFS) OR A
JUMP TOWARD ERN PA (WRF) SATURDAY. THE WRF IS NOTABLY STRONGER
WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 18Z SATURDAY (987MB VS. 997MB). THE
00Z ECMWF MODEL LOOK LIKE A STRONGER VERSION OF THE WRF, BUT NOT
AS DEEP AS THE GFS. AS STATED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION, THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW COMES AT AN UNFORTUNATE TIME WITH THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINS NOT TOO DISTANT OF A MEMORY AND ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY QPF IS
NOT WELCOME AT THIS POINT. THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW WILL GIVE MORE
INFO ON CURRENT WARNINGS AND UPCOMING CONCERNS.

THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT LOOK LONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE WITH A 18 TO 24 HOUR WINDOWS FROM 00Z SAT UNTIL 00Z
SUN WHEN MOST OF THE QPF WILL FALL. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS PAINT
1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SREF MEMBERS FROM 03Z
OFFER MUCH LOWER TOTALS, PREFERRING TO PUT THE RAIN OUT OVER THE
OCEAN (A MORE DESIRABLE SOLUTION NO DOUBT). A SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM WAS EXCLUDED FROM THE SAT PERIOD FOR NOW, PERHAPS IT
MAY BE INSERTED LATER IF NEEDED.

IT SEEMS AS IF THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS,
AND EVEN POSSIBLY AFTER THE EXTENDED RANGE (I.E. TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AFTER THIS COMING ONE, WHEN ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MAY IMPACT THE
REGION). ESSENTIALLY, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE EXTENDED
GRIDS, MEANING THAT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE END GAME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE NORTHERN ZONES (WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NORTHWEST) AND A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES SUNDAY MORNING FAR NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE LEADS
TO NO WEATHER IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, SO A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
(BASED ON MODEL THICKNESSES), FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.

HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, AND MOS
GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED FOR EXTENDED RANGE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THEN SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
MAINLY POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND WHICH MAY TEND TO THIN OUT MORE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND MIDDAY AT 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN TEND TO DECOUPLE EARLY IN THE
EVENING AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...
A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING STARTING LATER
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FAR TO MILD TO WORRY ABOUT PRECIPITATION
TYPES AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM. HOWEVER,
THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT KRDG
AND KABE IF COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM COMES IN QUICK
ENOUGH. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AND THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WOULD
PROBABLY BE THE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO COME
INTO PLAY AS A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 3000 FEET IS FORECAST.

THE PRECIPITATION THEN ENDS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER,
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT HAS HELD ON A BIT LONGER
WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING THE HIGHER SEAS GOING. THE PERIOD OF THESE
SEAS ARE LONGER, HOWEVER WE FEEL IT IS BEST TO EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
WFOS AKQ AND OKX, WE DECIDED TO EXTEND IT UNTIL 15Z AND GO FROM
THERE. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD, THEN OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
SHIFTING HIGH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WE THEN TURN TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTHWEST.

AS THIS STORM ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES, OUR SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS THE
STORM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP, THEREFORE INCREASING THE WINDS. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA, HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK
IS NOT YET CERTAIN. WHAT LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT THE TRACK WILL
BE WEST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS PLACING THEM IN THE WARM SECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAPID INCREASE IN THE WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET /ON THE ORDER OF
70 KNOTS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING/. WITH THE WARM AIR
SURGING OVER THE COOLER WATER, A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS
DEPICTED. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE STARTING ABOUT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS AND SWEEPS THROUGH.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WILL INCREASE THE VERTICAL MIXING
AND THEREFORE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. REGARDING SEAS,
WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO AROUND 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN
UP TO 14 FEET ON SATURDAY WITH THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. FOR NOW WE
BROUGHT SEAS UP TO ABOUT 10 FEET ON SATURDAY, WITH THEM SUBSIDING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE REMAINS THREE FLOOD WARNINGS AND A SPECIAL RIVER STATEMENT FOR
THE DELAWARE RIVER IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE INDIVIDUAL
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

OUR ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM WHICH IS SET TO ARRIVE
LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM,
AS A WEALTH OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES UP THE EAST COAST. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN RAISES
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA AGAIN. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE THAT THE
PRECIPITATION FALLS AS AT LEAST SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF
THE DELAWARE RIVER. THIS WOULD ACT TO SLOW THE UPSTREAM RUNOFF. THIS
SCENARIO THOUGH IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE ULTIMATE STORM
TRACK WILL BE KEY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE
GOVERNED BY THE STORM TRACK. WE CONTEMPLATED GOING WITH A FLOOD
WATCH, HOWEVER BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY ABOVE, WE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THIS EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/. LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH TODAY AS
ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE AND THE DETAILS REGARDING THIS
STORM BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...OHARA
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA /
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
HYDROLOGY...GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008

ANZ450>455-070845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
403 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND EVEN GALE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-070845-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
403 AM EST THU MAR 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...DELAWARE BAY WATERS...EASTERN
MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST. NO ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM ARE
ANTICIPATED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR MAYBE GALE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PO