Hail in Kansas, June 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

00Z UPPER AIR MAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WITH RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
COMING UP AT 850MB, WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 10 C EXTENDING WELL INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC MOISTURE NOT AS RICH AS IT COULD BE, WITH
THE 65 F AND ABOVE CONFINED TO OK AND SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ANOTHER MCS WAS OVER WESTERN
NEB, AND WITH THE PROFILERS SHOWING GOOD 850MB WINDS FEEDING INTO
IT, THINK IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT CERTAIN IT
WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT THINK
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO PUT IT SOME LOW POPS THERE FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT IN NV/UT, AND MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THIS FEATURE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
STORMS FIRING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. NAM
AND GFS ARE ALREADY OFF WITH THE CONVECTION IN WESTERN NEB AT THE
CURRENT TIME, SO THEIR HANDLING OF ANYTHING LIKE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IS SUSPECT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT VALUES A BIT HIGHER IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES, AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES THERE. MODEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE SOME PRETTY
DECENT CURVATURE, SO SOME SUPERCELLS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE EVERYTHING GOES TO AN MCS
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE HWO, MAINLY
FOR HAIL AND WINDS.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE BY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MOISTURE GOING
WESTWARD, THINK THAT SOME STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, SO PUT IN SOME LOW POPS THERE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL DEPEND EXACTLY ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WE WILL HAVE HANGING AROUND. WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S C, AND THINKING WE WILL AT
LEAST SEE SOME SUNSHINE, KEPT READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY, TRIMMING HIGHS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

DAYS 3-7...

JUST MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOWERED POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR EASTERN CWA
BASED ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREEING THAT OUR WESTERN MOST
COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.  THEN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...KIND OF FLIP-FLOPPED KEEPING 30 POPS GOING IN
MY NORTHEAST ZONES AND LOWERING THE WEST TO 20 POPS.  THE SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH KICKING OFF ANY PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY IS NOW
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SHORT WAVES SHUNTED OFF TO THE
NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP WARM
DAY TIME TEMPERATURES GOING.  OTHER THAN THESE MENTIONED
CHANGES...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DDC WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET HAS BROUGHT IFR CIGS
SHORTLY AFTER 07Z.  THESE OVC007 CIGS COULD REACH GCK ALSO BY 11Z.
IN BOTH CASES...THINK THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  62  85  62 /  50  50  20  20
GCK  82  60  85  60 /  40  50  10  20
EHA  87  60  88  61 /  40  40  20  20
LBL  85  61  86  61 /  40  50  20  20
HYS  82  59  84  61 /  50  50  20  10
P28  84  65  85  63 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN26/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
427 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
427 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008 /327 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ANY STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE ACTIVITY WILL MERGE
INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO SCOTT CITY LINE.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

RITTERLING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TORNADO          5 NNE PLAINS CITY       37.33N 100.56W
06/18/2008                   MEADE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THERE WERE OIL DRUMS TURNED OVER ALONG WITH DAMAGE TO
            SPRINKLER SYSTEMS.

&&

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