Hail in Georgia, February 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
346 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74 IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVES ALONG IT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY THEN A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC FNTL BNDRY IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR KSAV TO KAMG CONTINUING W
OVER SRN GA...BUT THEN PARALLELS THE SC COASTLINE N OF KSAV. THIS
FNTL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NWD TNGT...BUT SOME DEBATE IN THE
TIMING OF ITS PROGRESSION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF AN INLAND HIGH
PRES WEDGE. A VERY LARGE RANGE OF TEMPS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE CHS CWFA TODAY DUE TO THIS WEDGE...WITH UPR 40S SEEN FOR FAR
INLAND AREAS WHEREAS SITES NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
ARE IN THE MID 70S. SIMILAR SPREADS ARE SEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WITH
LOW-MID 40S FAR INLAND TO MID-UPR 60S FAR S. AS THE WMFNT LIFTS
N...THESE DIFFERENCES SHOULD SMOOTH AND ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TNGT
TO BE IN THE LOW 50S N TO UPR 50S S SO THE POSSIBILITY IS THERE
FOR SOME SITES TO HAVE RISING TEMPS THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIP...SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY ALONG
WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...FURTHER S WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER...SEVERAL BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE SHOWED UP ON
KCLX RADAR COMING FROM THE SW. LI/S JUST S OF THE CHS CWFA DROP TO
ARND -2 AND CAPES JUMP TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER FAR SE GA...AND THIS
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD WITH THE WMFNT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
STILL AVAILABLE AND A FEW LOW AND MID LVL LOW PRES WAVES DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ALONG WITH THE MAIN SFC FNTL BNDRY...WILL KEEP LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA...AND HAVE
MAINTAINED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN SVR TSTM
WATCH 74. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALONG THE
WMFNT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADO SPINUPS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TNGT IS FOR FOG FOR FAR INLAND AREAS AND FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE HIGH PRES WEDGE.
LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR LOCALIZED AREAS SUBJECT TO
N-NW WINDS AS LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP AND A MODEST INVERSION
WILL SET UP. S OF THE BNDRY...UNIFORM SW WINDS AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL NOT PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SFC CDFNT WILL REACH THE FAR WRN EDGES OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK
SAT MRNG AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SAT.
ANOTHER WAVE OF SFC LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MRNG ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE IT EXITS...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING EARLY IN THE
MRNG THEN DROP TO SLGT CHC BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
BY EARLY AFTN...SO HAVE NO POPS FOR THE AFTN HRS TMRW. AM ALSO
KEEPING ALL TSTM CHCS WELL OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AS ANY
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO OVER THE ATLC. THERE IS A DECENT
CHC THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTN TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND THE WEDGE WILL HAVE DISSIPATED SO MAX TEMPS WILL RISE
TO THE LOW-MID 70S FOR THE ENTIRE CHS CWFA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THAN
AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND
SUN THROUGH TUE WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 70S BY TUE WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION. A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS ON THE
HORIZON FOR MID WEEK. BROAD...DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO THU. A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE
AND TUE NIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WED
AND THU NIGHTS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
RETURNS BY LATE WEEK THUS A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVOLUTED TAF FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS ENTRENCHED THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND SC
AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS WEDGE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME NW MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE GA/SC COAST THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BOTH CHS AND SAV COULD ENTER THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THIS IS NOT
LIKELY...THUS WE DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

VSBYS HAVE RECOVERED A BIT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS PRECIPITATION
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER ANOTHER DROP IN VSBY AT LEAST TO LOW-END MVFR
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING IN. ASSUMING THE WARM ADVECTION DOES NOT PUSH
THROUGH EITHER TERMINAL TONIGHT...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN RESTRICTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION KEEPS MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TOKEN LLWS REMAINS IN THE TAFS FOR A COMBINATION OF SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST MODEL PACKAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. WE ARE TAKING A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE APPROACH AND REMOVING VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS BY 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE OR
TUE NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON AN IMPROVING TREND TNGT THROUGH TMRW...
ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TNGT THAT MAY CAUSE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 34 KT AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. LOW PRES OFF THE NC
COAST WILL PRES FURTHER E INTO THE ATLC TNGT WHILE A WMFNT LIFTS
NE THROUGH THE WATERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CDFNT FOR LATE
SAT...BUT NO DISTINCTIVE PRES GRADIENTS NOR PROLONGED SURGES WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO ALLOW CONDS TO RISE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH SAT EVE.
THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE TNGT INTO THROUGH TMRW MRNG WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER
SHELF WATERS BUT AM NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ATTM.

EXTENDED MARINE...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. A
SOUTHERLY JET WILL DEVELOP ON TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MIXING PROFILES SHOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT MIX-
DOWN OF THE STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER ENOUGH INCREASE IN SPEEDS OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A
SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
OCCASIONALLY SURGE ABOVE 25 KT WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...BUT THE
MAIN HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE BUILDING SEAS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE.
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...A FEW OF OUR RIVERS MAY RISE TO
NEAR FLOOD STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES THE OGEECHEE...
OHOOPEE AND CANOOCHEE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ116>119-137>141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JRL/JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-042>045-049-050-231000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
BERKELEY-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
1249 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-374-231000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1249 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ116>119-137>141-231000-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
1249 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GAZ099>101-114-115-SCZ047-048-051-231000-
CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL JASPER-
1249 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER
OR EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY NIGHTFALL. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A WARM...HUMID AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS ENERGY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL
BE FOR SOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE
STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

AMZ352-354-231000-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1249 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER
OR EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY NIGHTFALL. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...A WARM...HUMID AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESULT.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS ENERGY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL
BE FOR SOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE
STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.