Damaging Winds and Heavy Rain in Georgia, February 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TODAY...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTH GEORGIA AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GUSTS IN THE 25
TO 30 MPH RANGE AND WILL BE CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT TOO MARGINAL TOO ISSUE YET. OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACRS NERN FL AND 70S ACRS SERN GA. SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES WAVE ALONG FRONT INTO SERN GA AND THEN INTO
NERN FL BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE ALREADY PLACED DAMAGING WIND
WORDING IN THE GRIDS/ZFP.

TONIGHT...SVR WX EVENT WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT AND TRAINING OF
CELLS WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH IS IN THE GRIDS AS
WELL. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND FRONTAL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MORNING...WITH SVR THREAT DIMINISHING.

SATURDAY...LOW TRACKING AWAY FROM REGION WILL PULL COLD FRONT ACRS
THE REGION WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CONTINUING IN THE
MORNING THEN SLOWLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION...BUT WITH UPPER TROF
LAGGING THE SFC FRONT WILL STILL HAVE CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AND MILD MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND MAX
TEMPS JUST A SHADE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
IN THE DAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDS WILL DEVELOP WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
WITH COLD NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY AROUND 60 AND A POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZE ACRS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONTINUES AT SSI WHERE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO PASS.
JAX...CRG AND GNV ALL REPORT SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT
SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FL SITES THROUGH 10-12Z THEN REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH TS. BREEZY SW GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING. FL SITES WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS MORNING AS
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY BR DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MARGINAL SCA FOR OUR OFFSHORE LEGS
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH OF A NW WIND SURGE BEHIND FROPA SUN. WSW WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  59  74  46 /  70  80  30   0
SSI  76  63  74  54 /  50  70  40   0
JAX  81  63  78  54 /  40  50  40  10
SGJ  81  65  78  58 /  30  50  40  10
GNV  81  63  79  56 /  30  50  40  10
OCF  82  64  79  56 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

HESS/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
449 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
449 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR
TRAINING CELLS AND WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AS WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.