Storm Surge in Florida, September 11 to 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
730 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

.UPDATE...UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADD A HIGH SURF WARNING TO THE
COASTAL ZONES. HAVE ALSO HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSINGS DUE TO
HIGH TIDES. /11

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 11/06Z...PATCHES OF MVFR...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD WEST AS CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MAY AFFECT FLIGHT
OPERATIONS AT SMALLER AIRPORTS THAT DO NOT HAVE A CROSS WIND
RUNWAY.  WILL NOT BE AS WINDY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES./11

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.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES WEST
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF JUST SHY OF 400 MILES SOUTH OF
THE BEACHES. EASTERLY WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. AM PLANNING ON ISSUING
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE...WINDS
WILL LIKELY MEET THE GUIDELINES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. 88D WINDS
SHOWING ABOUT 40 KNOTS AT 2K. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE POPS JUST A BIT
TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS...LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF DRIER AIR WILL SUPPRESS
POPS JUST A BIT TODAY. WENT ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER THAN MAV MOS AND
A BIT CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR 3 TO 5 FEET TIDES OVER MOBILE COUNTY BEACHES AND 2 TO 4
FEET FROM BALDWIN WEST. /11

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z FRI MORNING HURRICANE IKE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL LA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER OR NEAR 25N AND
90W. AS A RESULT AFFECTS FROM IKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FELT ALONG THE
AL AND NWFL COAST WITH WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE OR LIKELY POPS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WIGGINS MS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO HIGH VALUES OF VERTICAL SHEAR...0-3 KM
HELICITIES 160 TO 200 M2/S2...MOSTLY WEST OF PNS STRETCHING INLAND
APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES AND MARGINAL SFC CAPES UP TO AROUND 800
J/KG...THE CHANCE FOR SOME ROTATING MINI SUPERCELLS WILL STILL EXIST
MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL...MAINLY DURING MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST POPS FOR FRI WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE CWFA STRETCHING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF ADJOINING COUNTIES JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BE MONITORED CLOSELY MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LATER
IN THE DAY PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE WEST WITH SCATTERED POPS
CONTINUING MAINLY WEST OF THE LINE FROM PNS TO BUTLER AL WITH THE
THREAT OF MINI SUPERCELLS DIMINISHING OR SHIFTING WEST ALSO. BY LATE
SAT MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
PERCENT MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH LESS RAIN AND
SUNSHINE POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX BY EARLY SAT AS IKE MOVES INLAND OVER TX AND
WEAKENS. FOR SUN THROUGH TUES MORE SUNSHINE THEN CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POP UP AFTERNOON SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY
AND DEWPTS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S HEAT INDICES WILL STILL
CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY. WILL USE THE CURRENT 00Z MAV/MEX
GUIDANCE FRO TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. /32

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THE 2
OFFSHORE BUOYS REPORTING 21 FOOT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
AS IKE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE AND
THEY WILL GET CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING GUIDELINES IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE LEGS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE AND MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 20 TO 60 LEGS LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN SQUALLS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND THEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY. AM
NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING SLOWLY...GETTING BELOW 10 FEET BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGHER THAN NORMAL DISPERSION INDICES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD.
OTHERWISE...NO CONCERNS. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  75  86  77 /  40  50  60  30
PENSACOLA   88  77  85  76 /  50  50  60  30
DESTIN      87  78  87  78 /  50  50  60  20
EVERGREEN   89  72  89  72 /  40  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  89  73  85  75 /  40  40  50  30
CAMDEN      90  73  90  72 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:      LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER
     MOBILE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:      COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL
SANTA      ROSA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
543 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-121100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
543 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
GULF TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 15 TO 20 FEET
NEAR SHORE AND 20 TO 25 FEET OR MORE WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA MISSISSIPPI BORDER WEST
TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES FROM MOBILE
COUNTY TO OKALOOSA COUNTY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS...TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME OF
HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING. COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN
REPORTED THIS MORNING FROM SEVERAL LOCATIONS FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND TO
NEAR NAVARRE FLORIDA. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM MOBILE COUNTY TO OKALOOSA COUNTY.  THERE IS A
HIGH RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES TODAY. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON HURRICANE IKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES FURTHER WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER ON FRIDAY. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FRIDAY
AS TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON
FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY SENDING WATER ONTO THE MORE FLOOD PRONE
ROADWAYS ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN AND ACROSS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES
AGAIN FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BE APPRECIATED