Colorado, 2008

Winter Weather in Colorado, May 13, 2008

May 13, 2008 · NWS PUB · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A late season snow event deposited isolated heavy snow amounts of 8 inches west northwest of Buena Vista in Chaffee County and 15 inches just northeast of Leadville.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.

A late season snow event deposited isolated heavy snow amounts of 8 inches west northwest of Buena Vista in Chaffee County and 15 inches just northeast of Leadville.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 8:13 PM MST, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 12, 8:13 PM MST, 4 hours 47 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
913 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2008

.UPDATE...
AS OF 03Z...COLD FRONT IS LYING ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF
WALSENBURG...TO THATCHER TO ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF KLAA. DEW
POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 30S AND 40S...CAUSING
HUMIDITIES TO INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR MOST AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE...AND AS SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST...COOLING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED RHS TO COME UP IN
SPITE OF FAIRLY POOR RH RECOVERY IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AT LEAST
INITIALLY. LATEST EVENING NAM12 RUN SEEMS TO TRACK UPPER LOW
FARTHER TO THE WEST...WHICH IS HINTING AT LESS PRECIPITATION FOR
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES FOR TUESDAY
ARE A CERTAINTY...WITH AT LEAST A WETTING RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL FOR
FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS. MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS WAS TO
INCREASE TIMING OF FRONT...AND TO LET THE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
EXPIRE. -KT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2008/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)

..DANGEROUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
..DRAMATIC 24 HOUR WEATHER CHANGE STILL ON TRACK...
..ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT-TUESDAY...

CURRENTLY...18Z/12 HAND-ANALYZED SURFACE CHART HAD SURFACE LOW
FORMING IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CO. DRY LINE HAS MIXED OUT WELL INTO
WESTERN KS WITH A SECONDARY DRY LINE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CO
PLAINS. VERY LOW SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF CO
WITH SUB-ZERO SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SUSTAINED 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
STARTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE
CO/NM/OK BORDER BY MIDMORNING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHERN CO. AS USUAL...THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY FROM PUB-LHX-LAA
WINDS ARE HAVING TROUBLE PICKING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OCCASIONAL BECOMES BREEZY-WINDY AT TIMES. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST
SOUTH OF WY/CO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/40S/50S IN WY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD A BAND OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 6.5K FT MSL.  THE RED FLAG WARNING IS BEING
MET...AND WILL CONTINUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR
ANALYSES SHOWED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ABOUT TO
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW OVER NV AND DRIFTING INTO AZ EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. VIGOROUS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS ALL OF CO WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE DRYING NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF CO. NO WILDFIRES REPORTED OR SEEN ON SATELLITE
YET...WHICH IS A GOOD THING. CURRENTLY...ANY PRECIPITATION(REACHING
THE GROUND) IS WELL INTO THE TROUGHS COLD CORE AND JUST TO ITS EAST
ACROSS WY-UT...SO IT IS GOING TO BE A WHILE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. RELATIVELY DEEP AND VIGOROUS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
CO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CO WILL BLAST THROUGH EASTERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GFS AND NAM-WRF DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...IF
AT ALL...EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CO IN THE
RESPECTIVE COLDER AIR MASS AND BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT REGIMES
DURING THE EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS WITH THE COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. HINTS OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NICE 30S/40S DEW POINT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PLOWS THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CO. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE BASED
CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES 0C TO -3C...
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEARS AROUND 60KTS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH CLOUD BASED
SUPERCELLS ON OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN DOWNDRAFT CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WOULD BE PRETTY LOW GIVEN LCL HEIGHTS GREATER
THAN 3K FT AGL. THIS WAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DANGEROUS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 900 PM. IF THERE ARE FIRES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...THEN FAST MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE EXTREME ERRATIC
FIRE BEHAVIOR DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
VALUES. OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. AGAIN...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO THE
WITHIN THE COLD TROUGH AND BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PER
700-600MB AND 600-500MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING(IMPLIED UPWARD
MOTION). SOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD AND/OR
DEVELOP FROM THE CO NORTHERN FRONT RANGE INTO TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH TONIGHT WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE STARTING AROUND THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO AROUND 7K-9K FT MSL...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND DIABATIC COOLING. GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 9K FT MSL...THERE
COULD BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-4 INCHES. ALSO...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ON
NON-PAVEMENT SURFACES PROBABLY.

TUESDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...TROUGH...MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL OCCUR.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 15-35 DEGREES COLDER
THAN TODAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL START OUT AROUND 7K-9K FT MSL...
AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT AND DIABATIC COOLING...
COULD INCREASE IN ELEVATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT TIME DESPITE CLOUD
COVER. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LOW TO MODERATE WITH 7.5 C/KM OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE CONVECTIVE SWITCH GETS TURNED
ON BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. COULD NOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 9K FT MSL WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-5
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WILL MAINTAIN THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A CHILLY AND WET DAY
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COMPARED TO TODAYS DRY AND FIRE WEATHER
DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS
CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. MAY IS A DANGEROUS TIME OF THE YEAR TO BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN DRAMATIC WEATHER CHANGES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS. 17

LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

SOMEWHAT C51ENGING FORECAST CYCLE CONTINUES FOR THE LONG TERM
WITH THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN BEING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
RETURNING FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY COOL
MID-MAY TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

MOST RECENT LONGER TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY 06Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z THURSDAY
AND THEN SHIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BY LATER THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT(WITH ADDITIONAL HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES) A BRIEF
LULL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED POPS RETURNING
TO MANY AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT MOIST AND COOL NORTHERLY SURGE PROJECTED TO IMPACT CWFA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND HAVE PAINTED SCATTERED TO HIGH
SCATTERED POPS THIS TIME-FRAME. HAVE DEPICTED HIGHER ELEVATION
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TRACE TO 5 INCH RANGE FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  IN ADDITION...UNSEASONABLY COOL
MID-MAY TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IMPACT CWFA FROM THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY
AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE MID-MAY CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE. FINALLY...GUSTY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AVIATION...

VFR CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL GIVE
WAY TO AREAS OF MVFR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AFTER
06Z/13 FOR KCOS AND POSSIBLY SPREAD TO KALS AND KPUB POSSIBLY AFTER
12Z/13. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY THROUGH 06Z/13 FOR
KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KCOS
BETWEEN 23Z-01Z/13...AND KPUB 01Z-03Z/13. 17

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ058>061-063-066-068.

&&

31/77
Hazardous weather outlook, May 12, 8:29 PM MST, 4 hours 31 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
929 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2008

COZ058>089-093>099-140330-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
929 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER DIVIDE. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY. PIKES PEAK AND THE PALMER DIVIDE AROUND
7500 FEET COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY ON
TUESDAY...WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS RANGING FROM 3 TO 10 INCHES BY THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...A SHARP DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE A NOTABLE 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER. THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Weather, Leadville Vicinity / Lake County Below 11000 Ft

When
May 13, 1:00 AM MST to 5:00 PM MST
Where
Leadville Vicinity / Lake County Below 11000 Ft forecast zone
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
39.202, -106.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Weather, Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft

When
May 13, 1:00 AM MST to 5:00 PM MST
Where
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft forecast zone
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
38.747, -106.194 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Winter Weather
Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Colorado in 2008Every state in 2008This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2008

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 102270, 102271.