Hail in Missouri, May 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
430 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/430 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/
MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR TDY WL BE CVNTN AND MAX TEMPS.

THE LARGEST FCST PROBLEM TDY IS POPS. MDLS INDICATE WAA PRECIP AHEAD
OF CDFNT FOR MUCH OF TDY. EVEN WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE CDFNT...ATMO
SHUD DESTABILIZE ENUF THAT CVNTN WL DEVELOP ALONG CDFNT AS THE CAP
WEAKENS AS INITIAL S/W MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. GIVEN FCST
HODOGRAPHS...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE THE ANTICIPATED MODE OF CVNTN
WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE THREAT OF
SVR WX WL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TNGT AS ATMO STABILIZES.

THE CDFNT WL STALL ACROSS NRN AR AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION ON WED. MDLS HAVE A CUT OFF UPR LOW DEVELOP ACROSS WRN US
LATER TDY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND WL BE THE NEXT WX
PRODUCER AS IT LIFTS NEWD WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ON THURS. MDLS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM MAY BE MORE OF A +RA EVENT AS OPPOSED TO SVR
WX. ATTM...AM KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS DWN AS MDLS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THIS S/W AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.

AFTER PRECIP CHCS ON THURS AND EARLY FRI...WE SHUD DRY OUT OVR THE
WEEKEND WITH NWLY AND WLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPS BLW SEASONAL AVGS.

TRENDED TWD WRMR MOS FOR TDY AND TNGT WHILE GOING TWD COOLER MOS FOR
TMW AND INTO FRI MRNG.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1100 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE REGION
WITH SATELLITE SHOWING SC DECK SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MO AS OF 04Z. THIS IS AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND WILL SEE THE
SC DECK SPREAD INTO KCOU BY 10Z...THEN INTO KUIN BY 12Z. DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO...KSUS/KSTL WILL NOT SEE SC
DECK MOVE INTO TIL AFTER 21Z.

AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...KCOU WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED RWS DEVELOP IN
WARM SECTOR BEGINNING AROUND 18Z...THEN AFFECT KUIN AROUND 21Z.
KSUS/KSTL WILL NOT SEE SHOWERS TIL AFTER 02Z. THE MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO KCOU AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY...SO ADDED MENTION OF
PREDOMINANT TRWS FOR KCOU BEGINNING AT 04Z. REST OF SITES TO NOT SEE
MAIN ACTIVITY TIL JUST AFTER CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
443 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
443 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TILLY